What a great resource you/we have in PFlory. Thank you!!! With that in mind, I hope he will correct my comments, if needed, as I am NOT an HVAC expert.
Being that ex is a has been, and spurt is a drip under pressure I guess I fit that bill.
The heat pumps of the past, say 12-15 years and older usually did not provide as warm discharge temperature as the current models. The systems today, using the R-410A refrigerant, actually transfer more heat per pound of refrigerant than the old R-22 systems. Current heat pumps with the variable speed indoor blower have sort of an infinite number of blower speeds. Rather than a conventional blower motor either being on or off, the variable speed blowers usually can be programmed to provide a slow 8-10 minute ramp up in speed. By doing so, when the compressor starts up, the indoor coil has a chance to warm up much quicker with the lower air flow over it, providing discharge air temperatures closer to that of todays high efficiency furnaces. (You can't compare them to the old 70% furnaces of the 80's which often had discharge temps. of 120*-130*) Likewise in the cooling mode you get better dehumidification by the same means that the coil gets much colder at start up with the lower air flow, causing the condensation to start dripping off the coil in the first few minutes of operation, where the conventional system takes about 15 minutes to get everything at full capacity.
If you go with a two stage heat pump in the 16-20 SEER rating, depending on manufacturer they run on 50%-70% first stage capacity, usually about 70% of the time in my area. When you consider that these are sized for the design temp. of 92* in my area, any time the outdoor temperature is below the design, you are actually oversized during those temperatures, causing shorter run cycles. By running a 2-stage system at less capacity on the mild days, you get longer run time, and according to American Standard on their units, are claiming 40% more moisture removal with the two stage.
I would probably disagree with the techs claiming reliability. I have many of these high end systems installed by both the Am. Standard, and Amana Everrest, and have not had any higher number of problems with them. As a matter of fact, it seems that most of my customer complaints come from the homeowners that install the low end systems. The key is having a tech who has factory training on the brands they sell and is not intimidated by a unit that may have more control wiring in it than the old school systems. Most systems now have integrated control boards that monitor any faults, and have an led flash code which would direct you to the problem.
Given that the older units indoor and outdoor coils were made of a copper tube/aluminum fin design, and that the two dissimilar metals expand and contract at different rates, over time there is less contact between the tube and plate, greatly reducing the efficiency and capacity of the equipment. Not to mention that years of grass clippings, rain splashed mud etc. building up in the plates even further reducing the air flow and heat transfer through the coils. So even if you were to say replace the compressor in an older system, it is not going to perform like it did when new. American Standard/Trane however has used an all aluminum "spine fin" coil which is not as susceptible to the different rate of expansion. That said, I don't agree with the old unit's being more durable. Both the Trane and Amana have some of the lowest compressor failure rates in the industry.
Finally, I just would recommend going with a major player brand. There are many small brands that are only carrying 3-5% of the market, and given the economy right now they will probably start going through the merger game. They wont be able to maintain distributorship with that small % market share and will either disappear or be bought up by other companies. Carrier (not my favorite) actually sells under many different brand names (Carrier, Bryant, Payne, Day & Night and others) they bought out to try to gain market share, but still hovered around the same as before they picked up the other brands. I believe they have about 24% of the market, Amana/Goodman has about 23%, Trane 13% and all the others fall below that.