Weather Projection for Thunder in Muncie

[wxman]

Since I'm a meteorologist and am interested anyway (I'm planning on attending both days), I thought I would share with everyone model projections of weather for the event weekend.



DISCLAIMER (As any self-respecting weather forecaster would include ): This projection is based on ONE model output two weeks+ in the future.



At any rate, the AVN/MRF (the only model available that projects out 16 days) shows troughing in the east and ridging in the Central Plains. This puts Eastern Indiana in a northwesterly flow aloft which is generally a dry flow. Today's AVN/MRF model run suggests about a 30 percent chance of showers/thundershowers on Saturday (June 8th) and a 30% - 40% chance of showers/thundershowers on Sunday (we might be literally having "thunder" in Muncie ). At this time, it appears that this will be mainly diurnal convection (i. e. , typical afternoon stuff) but no organized area of precipitation is projected. Temperatures should be near or slightly below average based on projected 500 mb heights.



I'll try to keep everyone posted as model changes warrant. Hope this helps.

 

[Joseph Donnelly]

Can you predict the size and number of mosquitos?



Last year, many folks had to tie ropes around their belts, and to stakes driven into the ground, so they wouldn't be carried off

 

[Doc Tinker]

Thanks for the technical weather lowdown wxman. I guess now, we can expect it to either rain or shine



Doc

 

[maint.man]

I'm with Joe , I'm thinkin' one of those full body screens made from stainless wouldn't be a bad idea

 

[Rob Thomas]

Well, It's 6 hours later, ya got another update? I'm gettin' a little anxious, wanna know if I should start washin' my truck yet. Oo. Oo. Oo.



Later, Rob

 

[TxDieselKid]

You should see the mosquitos we have here in Texas. should be no problem in Indiana.



Andrew

 

[wxman]

Today's MRF/AVN model ensemble is now projecting less than a 30% chance of rain for both Saturday and Sunday. At least it's headed in the right direction!

 

[nixter]

Driver?

Hey wxman, last year you had your son driving on Sunday. He laid down some real consistent RT's. Is he going to run your truck again this year? Weather permitting of course (We met in the stands by the way) See you in a couple of weeks.





Nixter

 

[DHRA]

weather

What's that? 70% chance of sunshine! Woooohooooo, I'll cancel the 20' tents then!

Sorry Joe, there is a 100% chance of Mosquitos!

 

[wxman]

Re: Driver?

Originally posted by nixter

Hey wxman, last year you had your son driving on Sunday. He laid down some real consistent RT's. Is he going to run your truck again this year? Weather permitting of course (We met in the stands by the way) See you in a couple of weeks.





Nixter

Yup, he's coming and he'll be running my first gen, at least >70% chance that he will.

 

[csevers]

please keep us informed

I would like to know if I will be campin or motelin it do to weather I will check here before i leave

 

[Amianthus]

Noah...

... will probably make some 1/4 mile runs in his Ark.



If Fireman (a. k. a. basement saver) Dave is going, the weather is bound to be wierd.

 

[BV]

I predict

light during the days followed by scattered darkness at night fall

 

[DEZLPWR]

LMAO, BV!!

 

[wxman]

Well, there are sets of ensembles from two new models today... the Canadian model and the Navy NOGAPS model (both project out to 10 days). These are in addition to the AVN/MRF model ensembles that has been used so far.



Anyway, with Saturday now on the "radar screen" of three different models, confidence is a little higher that Saturday at least will be relatively benign weather wise. The Canadian model projects less than a 15% chance of rain, the NOGAPS projects about a 10% chance of rain, and the more pessimistic ANV/MRF model is still projecting about a 30% chance of precipitation (for both Saturday and Sunday). 500 mb height projections still suggest that temperatures may be slightly below normal in Eastern Indiana (that may not be a bad thing at that time of the year ).



Tomorrow, there will be data available from all three models for both Saturday and Sunday. Will keep everyone posted.

 

[wxman]

The weather is still looking good for next weekend in Muncie. A cold front and associated precipitation event are projected to move through the area late Wednesday/early Thursday (early arrivers should be aware of this possibility). This feature should be well south of the Muncie area by next weekend. Eastern Indiana will be between systems by the weekend assuming the models are correct.



All models remain consistent, with the Canadian model still projecting a <18% chance of rain for both Saturday and Sunday, the Navy NOGAPS model projecting near 0% chance for Satuday and about 20% chance for Sunday, and the AVN/MRF still projecting about a 30 % chance of rain for both days.

 

[HVAC]

Hold On There!!!

Don't shoo that cool weather outta there to quickly If that Wednesday weather system

takes it sweet time to move along, ain't no big thang.



Anything but that high humidity 90* plus Dhaktari

jungle weather

 

[Doc Tinker]

Does 30% rain mean that it will rain 1/3rd of the day?



Doc

 

[Doc Tinker]

wxman - can you project the weather right now for June 7, 2003?



Doc

 

[wxman]

Originally posted by Doc Tinker

wxman - can you project the weather right now for June 7, 2003?



Doc

Doc,



Chances are that it will be a high of 79 degrees, a low of 57 degrees, a 35% chance of rain, and partly cloudy. When in doubt, go with climatology!