Weather Projection for Thunder in Muncie

[wxman]

Originally posted by Doc Tinker

Does 30% rain mean that it will rain 1/3rd of the day?



Doc

Technically it means that under identical meteorological conditions, 3 times out of 10 measureable rain (0. 01 inch) will fall at a given location sometime within a specified 12-hour period.

 

[ZEEEW]

And I had been going to AWS to get an outlook briefing. Guess TDR comes through again

 

[wxman]

Still looks like a decent weekend upcoming for the most part. The models have sped up the events slightly which makes Sunday afternoon a little more uncertain (there will be a cold front lurking just to the west by then with a moist return flow around surface high pressure). Still looks like <20% chance of rain on Saturday but 30%-40% chance on Sunday. Hope that front slows down!

 

[Morphious]

I would actually be worried more if the weather was predicting less than 10% chance of rain. At least at home, that is about the only time it rains, is when it is predicted not to... .



Morph.

 

[ZEEEW]

wxman, are you getting this info off the NOAA/NWS storm prediction center site? Or would this site have similer charts, etc? Since I have started flying I have found myself much more interested in weather, and am planning on at least a basic weather class to help me better understand the why and what of weather.

Such as, when there are multiple layers of clouds, is there an inversion between each layer, so the dew point/lapse rate changes/starts over and cause clouds in each layer, or what?

Any good sites that can teach me more? Or specific books?





Eric

 

[wxman]

Eric,



I use several sites but one of the best (I think) is:





http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/ensembles/



I also use this quite a bit:





http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html



The SPC site deals mostly with severe weather but it does have a lot of interesting meteorology.



There are quite a few undergraduate correspondence courses available in meteorology if you are interested. Check out, e. g. :





http://www.grad.usda.gov/



This site has several short courses designed primarily for NWS meteorologists:





http://meted.ucar.edu/index3.htm

 

[TxDieselKid]

Well yee-haw by-golly, guess i'll have to bring one of them there 10 gallon-Texas sized hats to keep the sun from beating down on me.



Anyone of yous folks got a clue about the temp-a-tures for this here event, i'm getting down right tired of this 100 degree, 100% hummidy down yonder!



Andrew-

 

[Rob Thomas]

TDK, The last report I got was... ... ... . mid 70's, both days just about perfect. of course now that I siad that it'll be 100*.



Later, Rob

 

[thepitts]

Check this site

http://wunderground.com/US/IN/Muncie.html

 

[wxman]

Everything is still on track for a good weekend weatherwise in Muncie this coming weekend. There's virtually no chance of rain on Saturday and very little chance for Sunday.



One thing that has changed from earlier projections is that positive height anomalies (per 500 millibar height projections) are now being projected for the Great Lakes region, including Eastern Indiana. Simply stated, temperatures will likely be above "normal" both days. Sky conditions should be generally clear through the weekend so be sure to bring plenty of sun screen!