I hate to say you're all wrong, but here is what I think.
Big oil is going to charge you what they think they can get away with, regardless of market.
The trend the last couple of years, run prices over $2 per gallon and we all screamed bloody murder. They then backed the price down about . 25 and we all settled down. Now they've run it up to $3 and we are all screaming again. Soon they will back that down a little ($2. 50 maybe) and we will all be happy again. Remember that last year we screamed about $2. 50. There is still no rhyme nor reason for the disparity between gas and diesel prices across the country. I work in Alaska and live in Arizona and see this all the time. For the last 6 months or so, diesel in Arizona has been about . 25 per gallon higher than regular unleaded. Go to Alaska and you find it the same price. Now you might say that Alaska produces its own, but the oil companies up here tell us that the reason fuel is expensive in AK is because it is an inefficient market.
Remembering the Seventies when we had 'inflation', I remember from economics class that the definition of inflation was something along the lines of prices rising faster than income. I haven't seen my income rising to meet the increase in oil prices. Petroleum based products are in our everyday life beyond just fuel. Plastics are petro based, how many of them do you use everyday?
Just my . 02 and I will get off of my soap box now. Thanks for your time.
Mike