Here I am

Anybody paying $6/gal yet

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Where will it stop for you?

I just heard of a gas station on hwy 1 down in California that is charging $5. 40/gal for GASOLINE. I wonder if they sell diesel ?
 
I think its well known now that the biggest cause of the huge gas and diesel prices is how it is being traded on wall street. Not just what they are doing to raise prices, but the fact that the system is obviously broken.



I haven't heard anyone (I dont mean TDR members) in the media or government officials or candidates coming up with any ideas on how to fix this system. The only thing Ive heard is that we need to get off of our dependence of foreign oil (that wouldnt solve the problem anyway. Even if we got all of our oil from the lower 48 states, it would still be priced the way it is now, and we would still would be on our knees).



Has anyone heard anything about anyone actually working to fix the commodities trading of oil so that we can actually be on a supply and demand system ?



TRat
 
it's all relative... . the distance you drive on diesel vs gasoline doesn't change if the price is $1/gallon for gas and 1. 50/gallon for diesel or if it's 5/gallon and 6/gallon.



Put the numbers into cost to drive 600 miles with a take of diesel vs gas. Hemi at 9mpg vs cummins at 19... . That would put say, the hemi at 300 miles per take vs 600 with the diesel. :) Both 34 gallons. you have to fill up the hemi TWICE to go the same distance as the cummins... I'm sure you all know about this math tho ;-)



$4. 20/34gallons for diesel = $142/600 miles

$3. 55/34gallons or gas = $119/300 miles. for 600 miles, $240



This assumes the Hemi gets 1/2 the millage.



But you all knew about this when you said "I gota sell my diesel!". Not if you sell it for a Prius, that's a different story. But sell it for a 1/2 ton truck, well, they do claim 20mpg with the Chubby, but I wonder how true that really is, and is that a 4 door, long box 4x4?
 
My guess is that it will be WAY PAST $200 before the end of the summer. What is to stop it ? If they dont change the way oil is traded on wall street, I'll would say will will see $500 within 2 years. And if you dont believe that, you just havent been paying attention.



TRat
 
Sad Story

I filled up today for $203. 00. 50 Gallons. While at the pump, the stall next to me was filled with the tanker delivering fuel. The driver walked past and we had a short conversation which started with him asking me how much /gal was the diesel here? He said he had about a month to decide on letting his truck go back to the company or just letting it sit...
 
Yep radio said 7. 00 was not far off if the feds drop the rate again. well I am going to clean the back and set up the stalls again and get another horse to get around town this is getting out of hand.
 
Jason, I bought my dads 03 Chubby 1/2ton 4x4 Q. C. Short box 5. 3L V8 Auto for the wife. My old man drove like a grandpa, and he could get 19-20mpg out of it around town. My wife doesn't race around but she doesn't drive like a grandpa and she only gets 16-17. Interstate mileage drops to 14-16mpg. If you want a pickup with good mileage you gotta go smaller, like an S-10 or dakota.
 
I took a glance at the world crude oil production data from the EIA which also shows various predictions of how production is expected to taper off in the upcoming years. The "Median Prediction" looks pretty grim. Even the "Maximum Prediction" only takes us out to 2012 or so before starting to taper off.

I took some liberties (with my green pen), to illustrate what I fear the price might do at that point where supply cannot keep up with demand, (the knee in the curve). I gotta go pump up the tires on my bicycle.

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Sort of "perfect storm" for fuel costs:



1) Outrageous number of mortgage foreclosures force the Fed to lower interest rates.



2) Lower interest rates cause the dollar to tank against the Euro and Yen.



3) Geo-political unrest in various oil producing countries.



4) Misguided pols. /greenies thinking biofuels will save us.



The results:



Outrageous fuel prices

Outrageous food prices

No end in sight



Unfortunately, I suspect things will get far worse before they can get better (the "D" word or at least a deep extended "R").



In all of this, remember to support your local businesses whenever possible.
 
Well the chart shows we're actually staying close to the max prediction. Scary? Maybe. But, when prices go up, they have more money to spend on exploration and extraction of new oil and previously known oil that was too expensive to get at the lower prices. Think about it, most of the oil discovered in the world has been on land, the middle east, texas, alaska, russia, venezuela, etc. The world is only 25% land. As evidenced by the two big oil field discoveries off the coast of Brazil in the last year, I think we are only beginning to scratch the surface of what oil lays beneath our oceans and the technology is only now beginning to make it possible to go for it in deep water. I don't think we'll be running out of oil anytime soon, but the cheap oil that's easy to get out of the ground is drying up.
 
Investigatin the speculators ?

Im sure its more politics than anything else. But Jay Inslee, congressman from Washington state and Maria Cantwell, senator from Washington state are trying to start an investigation of not just oil company manipulation, but also stock market manipulation of world oil prices (where everyone now acknowledges is where the problem is).



Cantwell tried to go after the oil companies a few years ago. But when she had the CEO's of the oil companies in front of the investigation commitee, the republicans (who were the majority at the time) shut her down. They said the oil company execs didnt have to be sworn in to tell the truth, and it went nowhere. At least those guys cant stop it this time.



I just hope that they will actually find a smoking gun somewhere, and maybe fix the problem. But even if they do, I think the damage has already been done. The price has been set. Im sure it will take a year just to set up the investigation. Then another year or more for the investigation. Then another year or more to get the results. Meanwhile, the traders will be jacking up the price as much as they can as fast as they can.



I dont think this process will bring us reasonable prices. It may stop the cost of gas and diesel at 8 or 10 dollars (?). But as I said, the damage has been done, and I dont see how we will ever recover, at least not in my time.



BTW, I keep hearing that we are going to RUN OUT of oil in 30 or 40 years. I think what the industry has actually said is that production of oil will PEAK in 30 or 40 years. In other words, production will continue in INCREASE for 30 or 40 years. We have a long time to develope gas stingy cars etc, as well as viable alternate energy.



Just my 2 cents.





TRat
 
It should be made very clear that it is the speculators causing the problems, not the oil companies. The CEO of BP/Amoco was on Glenn Beck a couple of nights ago. Yes they made $9 Billion profit last quarter, but they sell a lot of product. Their profit margin was only 7. 5%. On top of all that, They put $7. 5 billion of that $9 Billion profit back into infrastructure, exploration, drilling, etc. The thing that people don't realize is that their profit margin is not that high, they just sell A TON of product! Why isn't anyone riding big farming and big fertilizer? Bunge corp. makes fertilizer. Their profits are up 2000% over the last couple years but because their total profit was only $300 Million, not Billion, nobody says anything. Oil companies profit margins are not that high, they just sell a lot of product.

I think speculators need to be hung out to dry. I've heard all sorts of figures about how much they're driving the price up, anywhere from $15-$40 per barrell. They are causing a lot of problems for everyone and need to be eliminated from the equation. They cause lots of problems for the buyer and the seller, and they never actually use the product they're buying and selling left and right.
 
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