Be Careful on the Road - Look Out for the Other Guy!

[RUSSELL5000]

I am an actuary by training. In my case, that means that I use math and statistics to estimate future claims payments for a property-casualty insurance company (which is basically all kinds of insurance other than life insurance and health insurance).

The frequency of auto accidents (the number of auto accidents per vehicle insured for a year) had been declining since I began in the industry in the late 1980s. The average cost of an auto accident injury claim has increased at a rate lower than the overall inflation rate during this period. I think this is largely due to stricter enforcement of driving laws and all of the technological advances in vehicles over this time period.

I noticed something which, to me, was quite odd starting around 2014: it looked like the frequency of auto accidents was starting to increase. I found this odd because I had never observed this before; in thirty years auto accident frequency had always declined. Some amount of increase may have been expected: the frequency of auto accidents decreased significantly during the recession of 2008-2009 and stayed somewhat constant for the next three or four years. Historically, as employment and real income increases, people drive more and there may be some increase in the frequency of auto accidents. There has been some improvement in employment and real income since around 2014 (although rather anemic and far less than observed in previous recoveries). Gas prices are low on a real basis (inflation-adjusted basis). My analyses suggest these factors explain around 10% to 20% of the increase in auto accident frequency.

As best as I can tell, the major factor driving the increase in auto accident frequency is driver distraction. People appear to be manipulating some type of electronic device rather than paying attention to driving. People are talking, texting, reading, eating, etc., rather than controlling their vehicle.

So, for the first time in my memory, more people are being killed each year in auto accidents rather than fewer. This is ridiculous because it is so easily prevented – simply pay attention to driving rather than doing other things. Also, be more vigilant than ever and drive defensively – the chances are increasing that the other guy is not paying attention, and you need to watch out for him.

Let's all make those numbers start to go down again rather than up.

 

[DavidC]

I received my USAA statement showing insurance increase coming. Not only is their attention to driving lacking but the leave home 5 minutes before you need to be somewhere else is rampid. The swerving in and out of traffic in itself is also causing problems.

Dave

 

[jgillott]

My father-in-law is a pathologist by profession and up until his recent retirement, has spent the better part of the last 30 years performing autopsies. He just commented to me recently that he has seen an increase in the last couple of years in traffic deaths. Secondly, he said many more are substance (drug) not alcohol related.

 

[Tractorat]

I think a lot of it is that people now a days just dont know how to drive anymore. And there are a lot more pukes out there who think they own the road and that everyone else has to get out of there way. Just yesterday a pickup pulling a small flat bed put on his blinker and just started to come over into my lane. If it had been just the pickup would might have missed me. But if I hadnt put the brakes on his trailer would have hit me. I tried to pull up along side to see if he was talking on his cell phone. I couldnt get that close. But I did see the name of the company on the side of the truck was mexican. It occured to me that he probably doesnt even have a drivers lic. But then I remembered in this state they give out drivers licenses to illegals. Thats why wash state has the highest rate of illegals coming to the state right now. BTW, we just set a record for people signing up to vote. Wonder who they are ?#@$%!

 

[GCroyle]

Cell phones, texting and ladies putting on makeup. My top 3 for distractions.

Here in Charleston where I work, fender benders are a daily occurrence. Then the various rescue vehicles show up, gawking of course begins and many see this as a chance to grab a text or hit the visor mirror and put on a face before work. Bam Bam Bam all over again.

 

[The patriot]

I think a lot of it is that people now a days just dont know how to drive anymore.

THIS^. SOOO much this.
I live in an area that combines retirement villages ( retirees with brand new drivers licenses) and kids in squirrel farter thump thump mobiles.
It really gets interesting.

 

[Thump]

Here in AZ, I say "no one from AZ is from AZ." By that I mean the state has a high number of transplants and transient population. Add to it the wide streets and freeways of Phoenix metro and the influx of snowbirds and new college students this time of year and it's a recipe for bent sheet metal.
I was t-boned on the freeway on Sept 8th by a guy not paying attention when traffic came to a slow down. My 03 QC Dually didn't budge as his Mazda played ping pong between me and the Jersey Barrier center divider. Both walked away... no injuries and vehicles totalled (mine was repair vs value total, his was on a flatbed directly to the junk yard).
Cracker Jacks box licenses; too many dings, dongs, chirps, and distractions; lack of taking the PRIVILEGE of driving seriously and considering you're in a multi-ton deadly weapon; being stupid enough to think "I'm ok to drive" after drinks; and just being a complete idiot with drugs (meds or illicit)... they all contribute.
I'd like to see something similar to the automatic 30 day license suspension from DUI/DWI for at-fault persons who total another's vehicle and/or injure another in a traffic accident. Make it hurt so they may take driving more seriously.

 

[jhenderson]

We had a wrong way on the interstate just over the line in Mass last night. . 5 dead. From now on I'm going to adopt the recommendation of an acquaintance and follow 100 feet behind a semi when traveling after dark. Not likely they'll get through him to me.

 

[rynosback]

Distracted driving I think is the biggest cause. People on there phones instead of paying attention to what is going on around them while on the road. But you could see the numbers start to go down as the melenials like to take an uber these days. My nephew did not get his DL until he was 20, and still does not drive that much. Where I got my DL at 16 and drove as much as I could. Different generations.

 

[Wayne M.]

I'd like to cite 3 stories in my local paper that happened inside of 48 hours.

Cops say driver in Monday morning crash was traveling at 'high rate of speed'
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/10/cops_say_driver_in_monday_morn.html

Bail set for driver of fatal crash on W. Shore Expressway
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/10/bail_set_for_driver.html

New addiction center to open on South Shore
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/10/new_addiction_center_to_open_o.html



I agree that distractions are worse than ever. We're turning over our passenger car and supervisors 4x4 fleet, going from mid 2000 vehicles to current. I don't like any of it. Too much going on in the seat and ergonomics are not good (for me anyway). I'll keep my dodge trucks as they are thanks.
Ill add the drug epidemic that has gripped our society.
There's 2 sides to this; one is the prescription drug addiction that the medical society has just begun to take steps to harness, and the bewildering legalization of marijuana that is sweeping the progressive areas.
I also agree that immigration is flat out ruining some of the trucking industry. I can't understand these illiterate independents who run in contrast to a tight operation like Old Dominion, who my BIL is with. I've come to find that OD runs a tight ship! The truck lane of the NJ Turnpike WAS a respectable place to run.

Russell, do you analyze any of the mandated municipal programs like Vision Zero NYC? And what's your op in that model?

 

[EGroeneveld]

The save your *** car ads aren't helping anything either....just like ABS brakes have caused more people to tailgate.

Sitting at a red stoplight this morning. I observed more than half the drivers going through the intersection looking down at their phones at some point in the intersection. And a lot of them were parents taking their kids to the high school that opened in 15 minutes.....so the kids will do the same when they are 16.....

 

[GCP]

In my state, New Mexico, drunk driving is an epidemic. Add to that all the texters, iPodders, underinsured and uninsured and it's a frightening place to be. Be alert, be cautious and be smart. Stay safe!

GCP