That about sums it up for me. I have about discounted the electrical draw theory as it sounds tgbol has. I have had alarms with and without a electrical draw. Environmental issues (weather) and an external RF source are where I think the answers are. Last week when I was having the problems, there was heavy fog and cool temperatures overnight. This was true for mornings when it did not blast the horn too though. Cold temps are not it, I don't think, however, heavy humidity might be a factor. Don't know what kind of RF might have been around at the hotel I was at last week.
I had a CTM replaced under warranty about a year ago, for the alarm going off when I unlocked. The difference is that I could not shut the alarm off without driving over the threshold speed, of I think 20 MPH, might be 17 MPH. Now, when I get the problem, I am able to kill with the remote.
AFAIK, the factory alarm has no sound sensor, or for that matter a current sensor. What it does monitor is the door jam switches, and maybe the ignition. I have had the hood up before with the alarm set and closed the hood without setting it off, leads me to believe it is a relatively unsophisticated alarm system.
Shelby