We seem to be going at it from different angles. You are correct that even if the average guy gets say a 1 mpg gain, you will not see the same in your towing mpg. In that regard it is relative, but the total amount of fuel saved will be similar. Using the 30K mile example with the 17 mpg truck that gets 18 mpg with the hubs. That truck will save 88 gallons of fuel over the 30K miles with the free wheeling hubs. For your combination getting 12 mpg, you will burn 2,500 gallons to drive 30K. If you had the hubs you might only use 2,412 gallons of fuel to drive 30K (88 gallons less) and that would net you 12. 44 mpg.
First off, if a truck drove 30,000 miles @ 17mpg, and another truck drove 30,000 miles @ 18mpg ... ... ... ... the truck doing 18mpg would save 98 gallons of fuel over the 17mpg truck in 30,000 miles, not 88 gallons. That's about $450 savings over a 2 year period for most people ($225/year)... ... ... at todays fuel prices. When these hubs first became available, it would have been 1/2 of that, correct?
That's ~5. 5% savings correct?
Now, since there is the same number of available horsepower, that 5. 5% IS NOT linear. It cannot be. If a motor producing 305 crank horsepower is pulling 6,000# or 18,000#, the 3-5 horsepower used to heat the front differential oil is not linear ... ... ... ... it's 3-5 horsepower regardless of the load.
If it were linear at a 5. 5% savings, and I averaged 11. 50mpg, hubs would get me 12. 13mpg ... ... ... ... ..... OR, OR 136 gallons in 30,000 miles!
Now, I bought my truck with 14 miles on it, and it's got 425,000 miles on it now ... ... ... ... ... ... . it never gets out of that 11. 50/12. 00 range unless I'm heading west into the mountains with a big headwind ... ... ..... then I'll drop into the 10. XX range. It doesn't seem to matter if I'm at 15,000# or 20,000# to be honest ... ... ... ... speed and wind resistance make the big difference.
Now, if 3-5 horsepower is 5. 5% of total power consumed in a 18mpg truck, then it takes 73hp on average to power that truck, correct?
Now, a heavier truck with more wind load is going to take more than 73hp on average to power itself down the road. Lets assume that it takes 108hp using the fuel mileage percentages at 18mpg and 12. 13mpg.
Now, 3-5 horsepower to heat the gear oil is only 3. 7% of total power consumed. So, if I started out at 11. 50mpg, 3. 7% gain would get me 11. 93mpg ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . or, 94 gallons in 30,000 miles :-{}
I give up ... ... ... ... ... ... ... I'm leaving at 3am for a long weekend ... ... ... ... WITH my factory hubs:-laf