Let there be peace and hormony.
Now that we are calm, let's begin our first class.
Economics 101
Topic: Supply and Demand
Example: Fuel
Everyone should know by now that a hurricane has hit our Gulf states, and has temporarily shut down operations of producing fuel. This equals to a "Shortage" of this item. This also causes a demand for this item, because of the shortage. Shortages of an item comes in many forms. Fear is the biggest contributor. Once the supply has caught up, it will lesson the demand of that item, (fuel) prices will be regulated accordingly. This event happening during a holiday weekend increases the time it will take for the supply to catch up to demand.
The other refineries have to not only maintain their production, but pick up the fuel need in the south. The EPA requirements have been lifted on fuels, so the refineries can catch up with production. Just a side note, and my own opinion. I personally think the EPA has done an injustice when they require over 750 different fuel types be produced in this country in a years time.
Supply and Demand will equal itself out, time is the true unknown eliment.
Prices of oil are on the high side. Prices have been going up steadily in the futures market for only one reason. That reason is "Fear". Demand is up, resources are down. There are resources in Alaska that haven't been touched. In Utah/Nevada they believe is an oil field that equals that of Saudia Arabia. Oil sands in Alberta are just being discovered. In an article I read, the Saudi's have adjusted their calculations, and state they can maintain todays ouput of oil until 2059.
Inflation can't keep up with the price of a barrel of crude oil. I read that within 3 months, give or take, the price of oil will crash. This is the unknow time eliment because of Katrina. From what I've seen and looked into, it'll make the dot.com crash look like a Sunday picnic. Oil will steady itself out probably around the $25/bbl range within 9 mos. I'm by no means an expert, just going by my gut, and what's been happening the past few months in this industry. Steve Forbes was actually talking about this at a conference last weekend in Austraila.
Sorry to have stolen this post, going now to ice my typing fingers.
Paul