"Got diesel?" Is the nation running out?

[Scotty B]

First it was a threat of DEF shortages this summer, now diesel down to 25 day supply.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...y-likely-until-economy-slows-kemp-2022-10-27/

I paid $4.74 today near Longmont, Co

I told my grandson, when he purchased a 7.3L Ford last year (before the war) that the days of diesel may be numbered - either by outlaw or by supply constraints. I did not think it would be this soon.

I just ordered a 2023 HO. Maybe a mistake? I was hoping to get at 10 years of retirement RV'ing before the end of diesel.

I am curious what people think or if there are refinery experts in the crowd.

 

[SnoKing]

I grew up in the oil buisness. My uncle owned a Texaco Distributorship, my father and the book keeper bought out my uncle when he retired. I worked as a kid in the bulk plant in the late 50's and early 60's. From 1976-76 I drove the semi tanker. AN NOW! Oil companies are playing political games! They create artifical shortages when ever they want to.

 

[Scotty B]

AN NOW! Oil companies are playing political games! They create artifical shortages when ever they want to.

It sure seems that way. But, ...

Production capacity and reserves are falling world wide due to displaced capital chasing the ESG myth. In other words, there has not been adequate capital expenditures in oil and gas exploration and production - normally financed by big money center banks. This has been going on for years. Lots of frackers went bankrupt in the last 5-7 years because banks would no longer lend to them because 1. There was a glut of Nat Gas and 2. oil is not green.

The banks, instead were forced into chasing "green" investments by people that mean well, but have not thought through how to transition away from fossils without destroying the current energy landscape. (BTW, I will not get political on this site, as it is not the place.)

While everyone is aghast at the OPEC 2mil barrel production quota decrease, I personally do not think they actually have the capacity to begin with and have reduced the quota two a point that is in line with the reality of what can be produced.

It's a complicated picture. But currently, the end result is a world wide shortage of refined product (diesel).

I am wondering out loud amongst other diesel enthusiasts how deep, wide, and long lasting this problem is and if others have been thinking about the current circumstances beyond being mad at politicians. And also hoping there is someone with a rosier picture to paint.

BTW, I completely understand if moderators delete or move this post, as it could get too politically charged.

 

[Turbo Terry]

Oil company’s are making lots of money playing this game on us. Never fear diesel will always be . Be not afraid drive on

 

[Timd32]

I just ordered a 2023 HO. Maybe a mistake?

Hey get one while you can and enjoy it. It's a rigged game here, we are all being played out.

You can't have this discussion outside the political arena most times, so before it gets out of hand and shelved because I have the political forum turned off.

Buy it enjoy it, and have fun. They are awesome vehicles!

-------------------------


Diesel is running EXACTLY +$2 a gallon from Gas. That's +/- say $0.03 across a dozen stations around here it's INSANE!

Absolute scam around here everyone is priced locked the same. I've said this since 2020 we are all be scammed by everyone involved here from big business to the small station owner.

This is right now there is no competition out there. I worked 3 years at a Gas Station damn if we would not under cut the next station by .001 mills if we could to get 5 more cars a day.

Anymore nothing changes for months on end that are not coordinated.

Yes the supply in the ground at the station is no longer owner by the station in most cases it's an extension of the Oil Tanker in the water at the port.

Food prices are being fixed, fuel prices are being fixed.

How about "GOT FOOD" check out this deal to off load $4 Billion in "special dividends" before a merger $6 a share. Nobody hurting at these companies.

https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...neral-say-albertsons-should-delay-4b-dividend

 

[Scotty B]

@Timd32, nice pic, great looking truck. Thanks for the input.

 

[SnoKing]

When I was 16 they would put me in one of the Texaco pickups to drive around the small town I grew up in to read the other guys pump prices, and I would wave at the Standard oil kid doing the same thing. Back to the bulk plant, and they would call in the numbers to Seattle. And within the hour everyones price went you at the same time.

My step daughter dated the son of Mr X that testified before congress back in 1974(?) about price fixing during that shortage.

 

[Scotty B]

@SnoKing, I remember those days and when gas was .29 a gal. However, I lived s. of Houston at the time and there were no gas lines. I remember thinking if gas ever got above $1 we would be sunk. Well, here we are 48 years later. (I was driving an F-100 back then. It had a straight six. I also had a 3 on the tree Biscayne - lol).

If you think about it .29 to 3.69 in almost 50 years it is no more than the price of inflation and/or dollar devaluation during the same period.

 

[seafish]

I live on the Northern Calif coast where towns and gas stations are far between each other running along Hwy 1.
Of course I expect to pay more for gas and diesel due to the remote location and I always have done just that.
That said, the Chevron station in Mendocino has had the privilege of making hte naitonal news by being home to the highest gas price in the country, both actually and historically. It hit $10/gallon just a couple months ago and that was for unleaded !!!

Last Friday, I was hauling a trailer of finished lumber southbound and passed the Shell station in Point Arena.
Diesel was posted st $6.70/gallon and I needed to stop and tank up, but due to the configuration of my truck and trailer and the layout of the small gas station, that is only possible when heading North. In Gualala, I drove by the Union and Chevron, each listing diesel at $7.40/gallon and smiled to myself knowing that I would just get it back in Point Arena for .70/gallon less on my way north.

Only three hours later I was back in PA with a load of raw lumber and seasoned firewood,... BUT the price had already jumped to $7.40/gallon.

Grumbling to myself and a little to the attendant (I was polite since I knew she had nothing to do with it) I asked her what time the bulk delivery had come in (so as to be able to better time my next southbound delivery and fill up before their weekly fuel delivery)

Her reply lightly stunned me " Oh we didnt get a delivery today...thats on Mondays. The station owner drive up from Gualala and changed the price for the weekend".

While there is certainly no morality to this story, the moral of the story for me is ...

Take the time to flip a b***h on Hwy1 even when pulling a fully loaded 20' trailer loaded !!!!

 

[SnoKing]

I live on the Northern Calif coast where towns and gas stations are far between each other running along Hwy 1.
Of course I expect to pay more for gas and diesel due to the remote location and I always have done just that.
That said, the Chevron station in Mendocino has had the privilege of making hte naitonal news by being home to the highest gas price in the country, both actually and historically. It hit $10/gallon just a couple months ago and that was for unleaded !!!

Last Friday, I was hauling a trailer of finished lumber southbound and passed the Shell station in Point Arena.
Diesel was posted st $6.70/gallon and I needed to stop and tank up, but due to the configuration of my truck and trailer and the layout of the small gas station, that is only possible when heading North. In Gualala, I drove by the Union and Chevron, each listing diesel at $7.40/gallon and smiled to myself knowing that I would just get it back in Point Arena for .70/gallon less on my way north.

Only three hours later I was back in PA with a load of raw lumber and seasoned firewood,... BUT the price had already jumped to $7.40/gallon.

Grumbling to myself and a little to the attendant (I was polite since I knew she had nothing to do with it) I asked her what time the bulk delivery had come in (so as to be able to better time my next southbound delivery and fill up before their weekly fuel delivery)

Her reply lightly stunned me " Oh we didnt get a delivery today...thats on Mondays. The station owner drive up from Gualala and changed the price for the weekend".

While there is certainly no morality to this story, the moral of the story for me is ...

Take the time to flip a b***h on Hwy1 even when pulling a fully loaded 20' trailer loaded !!!!

As you may recall, I was in Point Arena from the summer of 1967 to January 1969. PA had a Shell and Chevron as I recall. I do not remember the gas prices being out of line back then. I enjoyed my time there at the USCG Loran Station. I have a saying that many also have. If you are going to take your wife or mate to see Highway 1 in Northern California, do it North bound! You know why that is true!

 

[Turbo Terry]

So they aren’t on the edge. I understand. I went south on a recent road trip. I was looking into the sun a lot not good Good idea go north on Hwy 1

 

[endoscott]

We drove that route south in 1972 after HS in a Corvair van, rear engine, air cooled. What a POS! We made it to San Fran, then East and back up through Nevada and into Idaho. Fun times. Lost a valve seat somewhere along the way, but limped home over Snoqualmie Pass. Changed out the engine with one that a buddy had sitting out in his backyard from a Corvair sedan. Fun times. Better than video games. We didn't know if the 2nd engine would run or not, poured some alcohol into cylinders and fired it up laying on the ground. Yep, it worked.

 

[Turbo Terry]

Last year I used most of 800 gallons of diesel to go 12 k miles cost me roughly $5000 to do that. These are rough numbers at best .This is about 3 times the amount of driving I would have done in my old truck. It also got a bit better mileage. No shortage of diesel fuel just expensive.

 

[Scotty B]

Non political explanation regarding limited refinery capacity and Jones act shipping:

 

[jrollf]

Oil company’s are making lots of money playing this game on us. Never fear diesel will always be . Be not afraid drive on

Yep, Oil Companies have been CLOSING refineries in the US for several years now, not expanding. The "shortage" of crude due to the war and OPEC cutting back has little to no affect on the amount of refined products being produced domestically since current available refining capacity in the US is running at nearly 100%. US refineries are not having an issue finding enough crude oil. There are two major concepts for profits, sell at high volume with a smaller profit margin, or create a scarcity and sell a lower volume at a high profit margin. Guess which side of the curve the oil companies have decided to be on. These closures span more than one presidential administration.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48636

"At the beginning of 2021, 129 refineries were either operating or idle in the United States (excluding U.S. territories), down from 135 operable refineries listed at the beginning of 2020. The additional refinery closures in the 2021 Refinery Capacity Report largely reflect the impact of responses to COVID-19 on the U.S. refining sector."​

 

[jrollf]

I live on the Northern Calif coast where towns and gas stations are far between each other running along Hwy 1.
Of course I expect to pay more for gas and diesel due to the remote location and I always have done just that.
That said, the Chevron station in Mendocino has had the privilege of making hte naitonal news by being home to the highest gas price in the country, both actually and historically. It hit $10/gallon just a couple months ago and that was for unleaded !!!

Last Friday, I was hauling a trailer of finished lumber southbound and passed the Shell station in Point Arena.
Diesel was posted st $6.70/gallon and I needed to stop and tank up, but due to the configuration of my truck and trailer and the layout of the small gas station, that is only possible when heading North. In Gualala, I drove by the Union and Chevron, each listing diesel at $7.40/gallon and smiled to myself knowing that I would just get it back in Point Arena for .70/gallon less on my way north.

Only three hours later I was back in PA with a load of raw lumber and seasoned firewood,... BUT the price had already jumped to $7.40/gallon.

Grumbling to myself and a little to the attendant (I was polite since I knew she had nothing to do with it) I asked her what time the bulk delivery had come in (so as to be able to better time my next southbound delivery and fill up before their weekly fuel delivery)

Her reply lightly stunned me " Oh we didnt get a delivery today...thats on Mondays. The station owner drive up from Gualala and changed the price for the weekend".

While there is certainly no morality to this story, the moral of the story for me is ...

Take the time to flip a b***h on Hwy1 even when pulling a fully loaded 20' trailer loaded !!!!

Fuel prices go up immediately when crude oil futures go up... and the crude oil hasn't even been pumped out of the ground yet. But when crude oil futures go down we have to "wait for the cheaper crude oil to get delivered and processed through the refineries" before prices at the pump even think about going down. This increases profits on both sides of the crude oil futures price spike.

The sad reality is, the local gas station generally isn't making much from fuel sales, it's the oil companies that are making the profit and not sharing it with their retail establishments.

 

[Topzide]

This all goes back to when Congress allowed oil to go on the global commodity! That's why people need to pay attention to more things outside there circle. Just look at oil barrel prices to fuel price at pump. Barrel up, price up! That's why the price changes at station without delivery!

 

[Turbo Terry]

I think it’s mostly the truth stated above and is not political in nature so far.prices will come down some but how much is the big question. Plenty of supply

 

[nukegm]

I think it’s mostly the truth stated above and is not political in nature so far.prices will come down some but how much is the big question. Plenty of supply

NOT plenty of supply.

https://justthenews.com/nation/stat...ply-shortage-southeastern-states-could-become

 

[Turbo Terry]

I didn’t know the southeast is running out of diesel. 40 days is not very long. If the big rigs have no fuel nothing will be delivered.