According to the US Dept. of Energy (DOE), diesel prices are ~250% higher today than in January 1980. Inflation is just one factor in the mix to normalize today's prices to 1980. DOE's weighting method: "
Real (inflation adjusted prices) price data is deflated by the Consumer Price Index, source BLS, where year 2005 = 1. "
Record profits are the aim of all businesses, and anyone has the right to a
fair return on their investment. However, if collusion, price-fixing, racketeering, or any anti-trust activities are involved to increase profits it becomes another story. Do you recall the price fixing scandal back in the 60's, in which the major oil companies were involved? Or perhaps the "windfall profits" fiasco of the late '70's when Congress had the goods on the Majors, and both the legislators on the hill and DOJ let them off the hook?
Now the Majors have found a new gimmick and are out OPEC'ing OPEC! The benchmark crude used to set the US spot price is Cushing, OK WTI which comprises 5. 5% of the total US production and US production accounts for ~28. 5% of crude oil supply in the US currently. That equates to Cushing, OK accounting for a mere 1. 5% of the supply, yet it sets the US spot price. Who sets the spot price for US crude? Well, it sure isn't the market!
If it were, then oil futures would not be tied to Cushing as they are. Oil futures have been tracking the spot price, which is going up at a rate greater than the World Weighted (WW) spot price (OPEC & non-OPEC weighted average) as well as the OPEC price. The WW spot price, a marketplace which accounts for ~71. 5% of current US crude supply, was $55. 993/bl on Oct 3rd, while the US spot price was $65. 36/bl on that same day. That's a difference of ~16. 8%. Does it make sense that an
artificial price on a crude oil that makes up 1. 5% of the US supply has such an impact at the pump? It doesn't to me and smacks of price gouging, especially when every major kicked their prices up that week an average of 12. 4% when all market indicators were trending
DOWN.
Looking at the DOE data it has become manifest when the standard was shifted. On Dec 13, 2001, the last imported crude went into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Before then, the SPR reserves remained rather static, but since then the supply has had a sizeable activity, but with only US crude on the supply side. Is this a coincidence? Perhaps, yet it does make a person rub their chin and say, "Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. " My own opinion on this is the reason I picked the word "
artificial" in the above paragraph. How could the US spot price out-strip the global spot price at the US rate of imported crude?
For me, five years in the hallowed halls of higher learning was enough to allow me to gain enough assets to retire at 58 and live comfortably. A Yugo?
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Forcing companies to return and/or refrain from obtaining ill-gotten gains derived through machinations, manipulations and misconduct is definitely in the stockholders best interest in both the short and long term. Can we say Enron?
The supply and demand argument just won't fly here. Check out the data DOE has on their website. As an example, on Oct 6, 1995 the crude oil stocks were 298,668,000 barrels in market and 591,673,000 barrels in SPR for a total of 890,341,000 barrels. On Oct 7, 2005, one decade later, the stocks were at 306,429,000 barrels in market and 690,520,000 in SPR for a total of 996,949,000 barrels. No problem on the supply side given demand is not out pacing the supply at all.
I could go on much further, but this has already gotten too long. You might check out the data for yourself. It can be seen at:
http://www.eia. doe.gov/
Enjoy your day and God Bless.
Merv