Attention: TDR Forum Junkies 
TDRComm
Staff Member
Hello TDR Members,
We are making payments to the Postmaster for the delivery of the next TDR magazine, Issue 102, to your mailbox (expect delivery in about two weeks).
In Issue 102 I spend two pages anticipating and speculating about the release of the next generation Heavy Duty (2500/3500/4500/5500) truck.
From the TDR 102 column "Blowin In The Wind," I wrote an article titled "Fifth Generation HD Update. However, it appears my summary of their past summer's happenings at FCA have been superseded by this article from The Truth About Cars. Below is the link that talks about the future Ram production:
Take a minute to read the TTAC article. Following the TTAC text you can read my thoughts that follow.
FIFTH GENERATION HD UPDATE
"In last issue’s “BITW” column, we printed a concept drawing taken from Motor Trend magazine showing the next generation Ram Heavy Duty truck. Back in mid-April, MT’s sister publication Truck Trend speculated that the Heavy Duty trucks would debut as a model year 2020. TDR faithful will note that the HD trucks have conventionally followed the 1500 introductions by one model year, giving the 2020 launch date credibility.
I’d like to believe 2020, but I don’t see how the folks at Ram can accomplish a Fifth Generation introduction that early. No way!
How so? Remember in Issue 100 we reported that the folks at Ram were “relocating HD production from (Saltillo) Mexico to Detroit (Warren Road), Michigan.”
Also, recall Issue 100 had the press information in Automotive News that the Warren Road plant will add 2500 jobs to support production of the Heavy Duty truck. The January 2018 AN article noted that the relocation would take place in year 2020. Relocation, not production.
A year is a long time. Regardless, I don’t think, given the logistics of a move, that production of the first Heavy Duty truck to come off the line as a 2020 model can happen in such a short time frame.
Don’t believe me? Go ahead (and this will surprise you) and google, “How long does it take to build an automotive assembly plant?”
I’ll save you some time and frustration. The fastest factory start-up in automotive history was the BMW factory in Spartanburg, South Caroline. It happened in a record 23 months.
However, Ram is not building an entirely new manufacturing facility. Warren Road is still making the Fourth Generation 1500 truck. And, up until the announcement of 1500 production moving to Sterling Heights (April 2016), it was the location for Ram truck products. Here is an excerpt from the Detroit Free Press with then-CEO Sergio Marchionne that told about the move: “The Warren Road Truck Plant, which is historically one of the oldest plants we have in the fold of the old Chrysler and now FCA, is a plant that would have had to go through incredible surgery in order for it to accept the new Ram truck. So, realignment of the Sterling Heights Plant to accept the new Ram…allowed us to effectively re-lay out the whole manufacturing footprint by not losing one unit.”
So, here is the bottom line: As we’ve seen, from the announcement date (April 2016) to the first Ram 1500 production at Sterling Heights, March 2018, it took two years to reconfigure the Sterling Heights plant. However, we noted from Sergio Marchionne’s April 2016 announcement that Warren Road “would have to go through incredible surgery in order for it to accept the new Ram truck.” Okay, it will have that “surgery” and my estimate, based on the retooling of Sterling Heights, is longer than the two years.
Longer than two years? Yes, the announcement date about Warren Road’s “surgery” was January 2018, add two years, January 2020. This goes hand-in-hand with the Issue 100 AN article that says relocation would be in 2020. However, with all these logistical hurdles I do not think the year model 2020 will see a new Heavy Duty redesign. It just doesn’t make sense. Introduce a new model while you’re moving? Sorry, Motor Trend, the next new HD will be a year model 2021.
Got it? Yep, 2021, that’s what I predict/speculate. Do you see any flaws to my logic?
Geez, in 45 days you’ll be able to critique my crystal-ball prediction.
Still in the mood for predictions? In last issue’s “BITW” column we asked the question, “What, if anything, happens in 2019?”
Answer: I think you’ll see a Fourth.5 Generation.
While this issue is being written and finalized in September, it finally reaches your hands in November. It is public knowledge* that during these fall months the folks at Cummins Columbus MidRange Engine Plant (CMEP) have been busy retooling the plant to make a 6.7-liter engine with a new composite graphite iron (CGI) engine block. The reason for the change in engine hardware is a new diesel exhaust emissions rule that will go into effect 1/1/2019.
*Local Columbus, Indiana, Republic newspaper.
As I understand, it the emissions rule change is not anything dramatic. However, as you look into the future there will be further emissions refinements that would require a new engine architecture. If you will recall, Cummins met the 2010 emissions requirements with their new ’07.5 6.7-liter engine. As I’ve picked up from reading the Republic and from watching Cummins to the last 30-or-so years, they are proactive, hence the CGI engine redesign for 2019.5 and, like the 6.7-liter that preceeded it, many years to come.
Again, we’ve all done this mid-year emissions-rule-change/engine-hardware-change song and dance before, haven’t we? Year 91.5 saw a change to the engine with the addition of a charge air intercooler. Year 98.5 saw dramatic changes as a different cylinder head (24-valve) and an electronic fuel injection pump were added to the engine. Year ’07.5 gave us the 6.7-liter engine and the addition of emissions aftertreatment components.
Also, going hand-in-hand with these previous mid-year engine changes, is it not coincidental that we saw some kind of increase in engine horsepower and/or torque? Elsewhere in this magazine (page 112), you’ll see that the CMEP plant manager has challenged us to bring 400 trucks to visit their facility next year. Coincidental?
So, there you have my prediction for the 2019 Ram Heavy Duty pickup: A 2019.5 introduction/model year introduction; same Fourth Generation chassis (new chassis/Fifth Generation debuts in 2021); new Cummins 6.7-liter CGI engine; new engine ratings; new front end styling of the Fourth Generation truck to facilitate extra cooling of the engine.
Geez, in 45 days you’ll be able to critique my crystal-ball prediction.
In the fall of every year, the writers at Automotive News so a timeline on products and their predicted release dates in a manufacturer-by-manufacturer analysis.
As this issue was close to being sent to the printer, my 9/17/18 copy of AN arrived. AN writer Larry Vellequette covers the Ram account. His timeline for the Heavy Duty trucks:
2019 – First half of year
2500/3500 – Freshen
AN defines “Freshen”: “Minor changes to interior and exterior, such as new grille, fascia, front and rear lights or seat surfaces.”
Here is a further explanation, Vellequette writes: “2500/3500: Another case where tariffs and trade agreements could complicate matters. The heavy-duty Ram pickups will get a refresh in 2019 as production moves from Mexico back to the US, but it will remain for now on the previous-generation platform.”
Interestingly, the AN timeline goes out to 2022 and there is no mention of “Redesign” (read: Fifth Generation) which is “a new platform, powertrain, interior and sheet metal. Engine and transmission could be carried over.”
FCA’s CEO Sergio Marchionne passed away on July 25. The board named Mike Manley as the new CEO.
By now the new people and positions have been announced. However, in mid-September we didn’t have any information.
Here is a short quote from the 9/10/18 edition of Automotive News by Andrea Malan and Larry Vellequette that gives us a little background.
“Since his appointment, Manley has not only absorbed Marchionne’s global CEO position, but also his role as head of FCA’s North American region, where the majority of its profits are made.
“Manley has at least temporarily retained his roles as global head of the Jeep and Ram brands.
“Manley has several top positions to fill and must determine whether to stick with the unusual structure created by CEO Sergio Marchionne.”"
The first article from Truth About Cars, changes everything.
The TTAC article talks about production of the HD trucks remaining in Saltillo, Mexico.
So, was the previous news about the total production change to Detroit (Warren Road), Michigan all just a bunch of Noise/political subterfuge?
Does the Saltillo news mean the next generation will launch in 202?
I wish I had an answer.
Robert Patton
TDR Editor
We are making payments to the Postmaster for the delivery of the next TDR magazine, Issue 102, to your mailbox (expect delivery in about two weeks).
In Issue 102 I spend two pages anticipating and speculating about the release of the next generation Heavy Duty (2500/3500/4500/5500) truck.
From the TDR 102 column "Blowin In The Wind," I wrote an article titled "Fifth Generation HD Update. However, it appears my summary of their past summer's happenings at FCA have been superseded by this article from The Truth About Cars. Below is the link that talks about the future Ram production:
Take a minute to read the TTAC article. Following the TTAC text you can read my thoughts that follow.
FIFTH GENERATION HD UPDATE
Fifth Generation Ram Heavy Duty artist rendition that appeared in Motor Trend magazine.
I’d like to believe 2020, but I don’t see how the folks at Ram can accomplish a Fifth Generation introduction that early. No way!
How so? Remember in Issue 100 we reported that the folks at Ram were “relocating HD production from (Saltillo) Mexico to Detroit (Warren Road), Michigan.”
Also, recall Issue 100 had the press information in Automotive News that the Warren Road plant will add 2500 jobs to support production of the Heavy Duty truck. The January 2018 AN article noted that the relocation would take place in year 2020. Relocation, not production.
A year is a long time. Regardless, I don’t think, given the logistics of a move, that production of the first Heavy Duty truck to come off the line as a 2020 model can happen in such a short time frame.
Don’t believe me? Go ahead (and this will surprise you) and google, “How long does it take to build an automotive assembly plant?”
I’ll save you some time and frustration. The fastest factory start-up in automotive history was the BMW factory in Spartanburg, South Caroline. It happened in a record 23 months.
However, Ram is not building an entirely new manufacturing facility. Warren Road is still making the Fourth Generation 1500 truck. And, up until the announcement of 1500 production moving to Sterling Heights (April 2016), it was the location for Ram truck products. Here is an excerpt from the Detroit Free Press with then-CEO Sergio Marchionne that told about the move: “The Warren Road Truck Plant, which is historically one of the oldest plants we have in the fold of the old Chrysler and now FCA, is a plant that would have had to go through incredible surgery in order for it to accept the new Ram truck. So, realignment of the Sterling Heights Plant to accept the new Ram…allowed us to effectively re-lay out the whole manufacturing footprint by not losing one unit.”
So, here is the bottom line: As we’ve seen, from the announcement date (April 2016) to the first Ram 1500 production at Sterling Heights, March 2018, it took two years to reconfigure the Sterling Heights plant. However, we noted from Sergio Marchionne’s April 2016 announcement that Warren Road “would have to go through incredible surgery in order for it to accept the new Ram truck.” Okay, it will have that “surgery” and my estimate, based on the retooling of Sterling Heights, is longer than the two years.
Longer than two years? Yes, the announcement date about Warren Road’s “surgery” was January 2018, add two years, January 2020. This goes hand-in-hand with the Issue 100 AN article that says relocation would be in 2020. However, with all these logistical hurdles I do not think the year model 2020 will see a new Heavy Duty redesign. It just doesn’t make sense. Introduce a new model while you’re moving? Sorry, Motor Trend, the next new HD will be a year model 2021.
Got it? Yep, 2021, that’s what I predict/speculate. Do you see any flaws to my logic?
Geez, in 45 days you’ll be able to critique my crystal-ball prediction.
HALF GENERATIONS – WHAT’S UP FOR 2019 HEAVY DUTY TRUCKS
Still in the mood for predictions? In last issue’s “BITW” column we asked the question, “What, if anything, happens in 2019?”
Answer: I think you’ll see a Fourth.5 Generation.
While this issue is being written and finalized in September, it finally reaches your hands in November. It is public knowledge* that during these fall months the folks at Cummins Columbus MidRange Engine Plant (CMEP) have been busy retooling the plant to make a 6.7-liter engine with a new composite graphite iron (CGI) engine block. The reason for the change in engine hardware is a new diesel exhaust emissions rule that will go into effect 1/1/2019.
*Local Columbus, Indiana, Republic newspaper.
As I understand, it the emissions rule change is not anything dramatic. However, as you look into the future there will be further emissions refinements that would require a new engine architecture. If you will recall, Cummins met the 2010 emissions requirements with their new ’07.5 6.7-liter engine. As I’ve picked up from reading the Republic and from watching Cummins to the last 30-or-so years, they are proactive, hence the CGI engine redesign for 2019.5 and, like the 6.7-liter that preceeded it, many years to come.
Again, we’ve all done this mid-year emissions-rule-change/engine-hardware-change song and dance before, haven’t we? Year 91.5 saw a change to the engine with the addition of a charge air intercooler. Year 98.5 saw dramatic changes as a different cylinder head (24-valve) and an electronic fuel injection pump were added to the engine. Year ’07.5 gave us the 6.7-liter engine and the addition of emissions aftertreatment components.
Also, going hand-in-hand with these previous mid-year engine changes, is it not coincidental that we saw some kind of increase in engine horsepower and/or torque? Elsewhere in this magazine (page 112), you’ll see that the CMEP plant manager has challenged us to bring 400 trucks to visit their facility next year. Coincidental?
So, there you have my prediction for the 2019 Ram Heavy Duty pickup: A 2019.5 introduction/model year introduction; same Fourth Generation chassis (new chassis/Fifth Generation debuts in 2021); new Cummins 6.7-liter CGI engine; new engine ratings; new front end styling of the Fourth Generation truck to facilitate extra cooling of the engine.
Geez, in 45 days you’ll be able to critique my crystal-ball prediction.
FIFTH GENERATION – LATE BREAKING NEWS
In the fall of every year, the writers at Automotive News so a timeline on products and their predicted release dates in a manufacturer-by-manufacturer analysis.
As this issue was close to being sent to the printer, my 9/17/18 copy of AN arrived. AN writer Larry Vellequette covers the Ram account. His timeline for the Heavy Duty trucks:
2019 – First half of year
2500/3500 – Freshen
AN defines “Freshen”: “Minor changes to interior and exterior, such as new grille, fascia, front and rear lights or seat surfaces.”
Here is a further explanation, Vellequette writes: “2500/3500: Another case where tariffs and trade agreements could complicate matters. The heavy-duty Ram pickups will get a refresh in 2019 as production moves from Mexico back to the US, but it will remain for now on the previous-generation platform.”
Interestingly, the AN timeline goes out to 2022 and there is no mention of “Redesign” (read: Fifth Generation) which is “a new platform, powertrain, interior and sheet metal. Engine and transmission could be carried over.”
WHO IS IN CHARGE AT FCA?
FCA’s CEO Sergio Marchionne passed away on July 25. The board named Mike Manley as the new CEO.
By now the new people and positions have been announced. However, in mid-September we didn’t have any information.
Here is a short quote from the 9/10/18 edition of Automotive News by Andrea Malan and Larry Vellequette that gives us a little background.
“Since his appointment, Manley has not only absorbed Marchionne’s global CEO position, but also his role as head of FCA’s North American region, where the majority of its profits are made.
“Manley has at least temporarily retained his roles as global head of the Jeep and Ram brands.
“Manley has several top positions to fill and must determine whether to stick with the unusual structure created by CEO Sergio Marchionne.”"
The first article from Truth About Cars, changes everything.
WHO IS IN CHARGE AT FCA?
The TTAC article talks about production of the HD trucks remaining in Saltillo, Mexico.
So, was the previous news about the total production change to Detroit (Warren Road), Michigan all just a bunch of Noise/political subterfuge?
Does the Saltillo news mean the next generation will launch in 202?
I wish I had an answer.
Robert Patton
TDR Editor
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