Attention: TDR Forum Junkies G. R. Whale, TDR Writer
For years Audi plastered their press cars in “TDI Clean Diesel” banners, a fact which annoyed me because you couldn’t put people in one of those cars to surprise them with the progress diesel had made without them knowing already it was a diesel. Volkswagen got some figuratively great mileage out of their TDI campaign and now it’s all come down to naught.
And just one letter separates us, so the TDR will likely receive some scorn, too.
Chicken Littles everywhere have jumped on the “diesel-is-bad” bandwagon. Headlines declare Volkswagen has done irreparable harm to the global environment. The New York Times calculated VW’s failure will be responsible for more than 100 deaths, though they generously admitted that while the EPA has said the emissions may have exceeded legal limits by 40 times, the newspaper used 39 times for their calculations and it might be a “high assumption.” Even if the bad TDI’s were emitting 40 times the standard (I believe there are too many variables to know and EPA chose the worst-case scenario for shock value) that would still be around the same as a 25-year-old U.S.-spec diesel. In referencing a study by an MIT associate professor that suggested VW’s added emissions would account for 40 more deaths over time, the Times says “That probably undercounts the impact, though, since it does not consider the effects of direct nitrogen oxide pollution or smog.”
Fortunately the same article puts that in perspective with a Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (in Germany) study that estimates air pollution causes three million premature deaths a year, a number that may double by 2050. Note the use of “premature” since “air pollution” doesn’t appear a valid cause on death certificates and smoking can do the same thing.
I’m not excusing what VW did, but 40 out of three million seems a smaller percentage than how many deaths have been attributed to GM’s ignition-key issue. According to a University of Washington Bothell/Seattle study, coal dust from a passing train can present a far greater particulate problem than those from the engines pulling the train.
California has already pulled out of a multi-state investigation of VW to do their own—pooling resources is not their thing, because California’s long been a bastion of smog and pollution speak, in great part because it has a lot of motor vehicles, dust, agriculture and sunlight, and it’s my opinion the various governors named Brown have made substantial money on the state’s smog-check program. It’s rare a politician there doesn’t utter the sound-bite “global warming” while apparently forgetting that California’s air pollution doesn’t all begin here. Anyone who’s flown west and eastbound in the northern hemisphere knows that, generally speaking, wind goes west to east. And what’s east of California beyond a vast ocean? Asia. Most of which beyond Japan and South Korea haven’t had vehicle emissions requirements as long, strict or both. So the California Air Resources Board (CARB) runs amok with retroactive regulations—a friend left the state when informed his recently purchased (in California) used truck, on which he put less than 5,000 non-commercial miles per year, would require an emissions equipment retrofit that cost more than the truck—that have no effect on the “global” air carried here.
As of January 2014 California had about 13 million registered vehicles. A spokesman for CARB says 50,000 of those (less than half of one percent) are diesel cars, brand and vintages unspecified. Volkswagen Group’s cheater TDI’s account for a fraction of one percent of the vehicles on the road in the U.S., and an even smaller fraction of worldwide vehicles sales. From 2000 to 2010 China’s vehicle sales increased by 20 times, India had the second-highest growth and Oceania was third. Have you seen the air in Shanghai, Mumbai or Bangkok lately?
CARB says more than 7,000 premature deaths occur in California yearly because of air pollution, and more than 70 percent of the population live in counties with “unhealthy” amounts of pollution. I emphasized counties because the air quality varies widely within most of the counties home to a large population.
In California you can drive a gasoline car with the “service engine now” light that indicates an out of spec or compliance condition illuminated for up to two years, the time between smog checks. However, CARB decreed that no part of an emissions strategy for diesel engines should require driver/customer action, hence DEF tanks sized for maintenance intervals and the countdowns to no-start or limp-home mode. Politicians and CARB would be very happy if everyone there drove electric cars, despite the issues the grid has issues keeping up.
Around my Southern California area most larger medical buildings, hospitals and some research establishments have back-up generators, and most of them have a “1993” placard that signifies diesel fuel on their tanks. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2013 just five percent of nitrous oxide in the U.S. came from transportation and six percent from stationary combustion, and while nitrous oxide emissions standards for motor vehicles have come down, in the U.S. NO emissions went up about eight percent from 1990-2013, agriculture and the electric power sector cited primary contributors, and EPA expects it to increase between 2005 and 2020 from agricultural activities.
So yes, someone at VW screwed up. My friends who work there (in Germany and the States) have been demoralized through no fault of their own, the stock price has revised many retirement plans, and salesmen friends are essentially taking a pay cut. My phone’s been ringing more than normal because of it. VW will be fined because it’s an easy payday for EPA and/or CARB (would CARB fine EPA for their toxic spill if it happened in California?), but I doubt they’ll be fined the maximum—more than most of the cars cost. And the cost of any U.S. diesel engine is likely to go up because of added regulation. But given the numbers I hardly the think the global pollution levels will ever have a measurable difference because of it, let alone the air-mageddon Chicken Little says it is.
For years Audi plastered their press cars in “TDI Clean Diesel” banners, a fact which annoyed me because you couldn’t put people in one of those cars to surprise them with the progress diesel had made without them knowing already it was a diesel. Volkswagen got some figuratively great mileage out of their TDI campaign and now it’s all come down to naught.
And just one letter separates us, so the TDR will likely receive some scorn, too.
Chicken Littles everywhere have jumped on the “diesel-is-bad” bandwagon. Headlines declare Volkswagen has done irreparable harm to the global environment. The New York Times calculated VW’s failure will be responsible for more than 100 deaths, though they generously admitted that while the EPA has said the emissions may have exceeded legal limits by 40 times, the newspaper used 39 times for their calculations and it might be a “high assumption.” Even if the bad TDI’s were emitting 40 times the standard (I believe there are too many variables to know and EPA chose the worst-case scenario for shock value) that would still be around the same as a 25-year-old U.S.-spec diesel. In referencing a study by an MIT associate professor that suggested VW’s added emissions would account for 40 more deaths over time, the Times says “That probably undercounts the impact, though, since it does not consider the effects of direct nitrogen oxide pollution or smog.”
Fortunately the same article puts that in perspective with a Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (in Germany) study that estimates air pollution causes three million premature deaths a year, a number that may double by 2050. Note the use of “premature” since “air pollution” doesn’t appear a valid cause on death certificates and smoking can do the same thing.
I’m not excusing what VW did, but 40 out of three million seems a smaller percentage than how many deaths have been attributed to GM’s ignition-key issue. According to a University of Washington Bothell/Seattle study, coal dust from a passing train can present a far greater particulate problem than those from the engines pulling the train.
California has already pulled out of a multi-state investigation of VW to do their own—pooling resources is not their thing, because California’s long been a bastion of smog and pollution speak, in great part because it has a lot of motor vehicles, dust, agriculture and sunlight, and it’s my opinion the various governors named Brown have made substantial money on the state’s smog-check program. It’s rare a politician there doesn’t utter the sound-bite “global warming” while apparently forgetting that California’s air pollution doesn’t all begin here. Anyone who’s flown west and eastbound in the northern hemisphere knows that, generally speaking, wind goes west to east. And what’s east of California beyond a vast ocean? Asia. Most of which beyond Japan and South Korea haven’t had vehicle emissions requirements as long, strict or both. So the California Air Resources Board (CARB) runs amok with retroactive regulations—a friend left the state when informed his recently purchased (in California) used truck, on which he put less than 5,000 non-commercial miles per year, would require an emissions equipment retrofit that cost more than the truck—that have no effect on the “global” air carried here.
As of January 2014 California had about 13 million registered vehicles. A spokesman for CARB says 50,000 of those (less than half of one percent) are diesel cars, brand and vintages unspecified. Volkswagen Group’s cheater TDI’s account for a fraction of one percent of the vehicles on the road in the U.S., and an even smaller fraction of worldwide vehicles sales. From 2000 to 2010 China’s vehicle sales increased by 20 times, India had the second-highest growth and Oceania was third. Have you seen the air in Shanghai, Mumbai or Bangkok lately?
CARB says more than 7,000 premature deaths occur in California yearly because of air pollution, and more than 70 percent of the population live in counties with “unhealthy” amounts of pollution. I emphasized counties because the air quality varies widely within most of the counties home to a large population.
In California you can drive a gasoline car with the “service engine now” light that indicates an out of spec or compliance condition illuminated for up to two years, the time between smog checks. However, CARB decreed that no part of an emissions strategy for diesel engines should require driver/customer action, hence DEF tanks sized for maintenance intervals and the countdowns to no-start or limp-home mode. Politicians and CARB would be very happy if everyone there drove electric cars, despite the issues the grid has issues keeping up.
Around my Southern California area most larger medical buildings, hospitals and some research establishments have back-up generators, and most of them have a “1993” placard that signifies diesel fuel on their tanks. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2013 just five percent of nitrous oxide in the U.S. came from transportation and six percent from stationary combustion, and while nitrous oxide emissions standards for motor vehicles have come down, in the U.S. NO emissions went up about eight percent from 1990-2013, agriculture and the electric power sector cited primary contributors, and EPA expects it to increase between 2005 and 2020 from agricultural activities.
So yes, someone at VW screwed up. My friends who work there (in Germany and the States) have been demoralized through no fault of their own, the stock price has revised many retirement plans, and salesmen friends are essentially taking a pay cut. My phone’s been ringing more than normal because of it. VW will be fined because it’s an easy payday for EPA and/or CARB (would CARB fine EPA for their toxic spill if it happened in California?), but I doubt they’ll be fined the maximum—more than most of the cars cost. And the cost of any U.S. diesel engine is likely to go up because of added regulation. But given the numbers I hardly the think the global pollution levels will ever have a measurable difference because of it, let alone the air-mageddon Chicken Little says it is.
