Please Educate me (economic)

[JB @ C and L Machine]

Kinda a simple question. . Why does our small business do poorly with a Republican in office and boom with a Democrat?

 

[fkovalski]

This thread ought to be interesting….



Our wonderful POTUS Clinton inherited a strong economy from the policies in place from the previous 3 administrations but did nothing and squandered it. Everyone was riding a huge bubble to which Ole Bill past on to the current administration. It runs in cycles to where the responsibilities and economic situation now should be credited to the previous term holders. Proof of this: If the economic situation was as good as they say (under Clinton) then there is no way Gore should have lost, Lewinsky not withstanding (or perhaps kneeling. ) Alot of people disagree with the philosophy of "trickle down economics. " I'll say this- 'trickle up economics' sure as he!! does not work! Think about it.

 

[illflem]

Statistically over the last 100 years there has been no difference in which party is in office and the performance of the economy. The negatives and the positives balance out to something like 0. 3%, not significant. My feeling is the people run the economy, the president doesn't do diddly.



The economy right before the election does make a difference on who will be elected though. The incumbent party has lost the White House 9 times since 1900. In 5 cases, a recession or bear market was already underway on Election Day; and in 3 of the remaining 4 cases, a new recession or bear market began in the 12 months after election. The only exception: when Clinton defeated Bush in 1992. So since Gore lost, then historical odds were high that a bear market and/or recession would soon be underway.

 

[TPCDrafting]

John just curious, what line of business are you in? I am an architectural designer and work for myself. This market has changed things somewhat for me as well. I'm still busy, but the work is more smaller homes instead of a few monster homes. Either pays the bills for me. As far as the market goes, it'll come back up. As Bill stated, it's up to the people to get it kick started again. I'm buying stock now while the market is down and prices are cheap. Yep, I'm losing money, but my hope is that when the market comes back up I'll be sitting pretty. I wish you good luck and hope your business survives.

 

[JB @ C and L Machine]

tp



We do maintaince repair machine work for industry. We are trying to branch out but, customers dont come overnight.

 

[RustyJC]

I think it somewhat ironic that those who do not support President Bush claim that the oil industry is a primary beneficiary of his policies. Our company provides power and compression equipment as well as aftermarket support services (parts, service, machine shop, contract operation & maintenance, etc. ) for the oil and gas industry, and I guarantee you we're not benefitting from the current economic environment.



The oil and gas companies (post-Enron) are deferring spending wherever possible to shore up their balance sheets. They are tending to buy (i. e. , purchase other companies or producing properties) rather than explore for new reserves.



This has little to do with the political party that's in power. I've literally been associated with the oil & gas business all my life (my dad worked for Humble/Exxon), and this business is cyclical - always has been, and probably always will be.



Rusty

 

[Hohn]

Originally posted by illflem

Statistically over the last 100 years there has been no difference in which party is in office and the performance of the economy. The negatives and the positives balance out to something like 0. 3%, not significant. My feeling is the people run the economy, the president doesn't do diddly.



The economy right before the election does make a difference on who will be elected though. The incumbent party has lost the White House 9 times since 1900. In 5 cases, a recession or bear market was already underway on Election Day; and in 3 of the remaining 4 cases, a new recession or bear market began in the 12 months after election. The only exception: when Clinton defeated Bush in 1992. So since Gore lost, then historical odds were high that a bear market and/or recession would soon be underway.

Excellent post, Illflem. May I add one thing... YOU are the economy! I mean, we hear all this gloom and doom, but for MOST of us, our lives aren't much, if any worse off than we could expect. When the economy was booming in the late 90's, MOST of us didn't make a killing in the stock market, either. Like Shakespeare said, "there is neither good nor bad, but thinking that makes it so". That is true in economics. The economy is the best example of self-fulfilling prophecy around.



I wish I still had that email fwd about the small town where none of the small businesses venture out because they "think" the economy is going bad. Anyone have that? If so, please post.



The Pres only WISHES he could have an effect on the economy. That's why it's not right to blame a pres when things are bad, nor give him credit when things are good. Think of the small business owner as being the man in the arena when you read this:



""It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood;

who strives valiantly;who errs, and comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming;

but who does actually strive to do the deeds;

who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions;

who spends himself in a worthy cause;who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat. "





Hohn

 

[me4osu]

Yeah, its a big oil industry conspiracy.



I work for one of Rusty's customers. With Bush Sr. in office, our compressor fleet utilization (fleet % on active contracts) was in the 97% range. Currently, with Bush Jr. , our utilization is rumored to be below 80%. Also, our leadership has a goal to lay off 500 employees by third quarter 2003.



I wish we were getting special treatment from the Government.

 

[apkole]

"It's not the critic..."

Hohn,



Great quote! I removed that from the back page of my son's high school sports program book 10 years ago and posted it on my maintenance shop office wall.



Self fulfilling prophecy... . the story of the hot dog vendor who is asked why the big order for supplies when the economy is slowing down? So he gets concerned and cuts supply order in half and sure enough, his sales drop . . . by 50%. Now he is really in a panic, so he cuts the supply order again, and sales continue to fall. This cycle continues, and by the end of the week, the vendor is out of business, and he is marveling at the accuracy of the predicted business downturn!!



We do residential roofing in warmer months, snowplowing in the winter. I try real hard not to listen to the "noise" from the media. Just respond to requests for service in a timely manner, and keep truckin' along.



Andy

 

[dseabaugh]

I've been self emplyed since 1979 and It always has been feast when the Dems. are in and near bankruptcy when the repubs. as far as we are concerned. I received my first summons for a suit on account by sheriffs deputy today. The last time I had trouble paying my bills was during reagan/bush. we prepaid all orders and had plenty of money to do it after a year or two of Clinton.

 

[rob10858]

once upon a time,i majored in econ and bus mgt in college. two degrees hanging on the wall, but the only job available after graduating was sales. it was all pretty much theoretical bs, but one thing stands, supply and demand. the stock mkt, gnp, and every other economic indicator hinge on the ability of folks to buy the stuff that's on the shelves. it's that simple... remember that mr clinton inherited a country that was post war successful, and just looking for an excuse to spend, after agonizing about the persian gulf war. the inventory on hand was a direct result of the economic boom that the stockmarket had created for itself. and history now tells us that it was only a mirage, the money was'nt in the companies' wallet, but on paper. when that money suddenly became non-existent, so did the power of the 401 and ira recipients to spend it. when you lose 20000 in one year, in your retirement acct, it kind of limits your travel and luxury spending, including many of the products that were made, during the economic heyday, when everything was possible. mr bush has had a hard row to hoe since he was elected, 911, columbia, the economy tanking... . the thing that i fear most is, from an economic standpoint, we are robbing peter to pay paul... . mr carter tried that , with, i don't think, any more success than mr bush will have .

 

[ddesau]

Remember history

Those who forget history and prone to repeat it. Back in 1929 The economy was going well - the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board decided that the economy was too hot and so he raised the interest rates. Bam - the Stock Market crashes, companies go bankrupt, millions are out of work. FDR is elected President - gradually the depression ends- but it is a long time. America is attacked without warning -Then there is a WAR - the economy rebounds and life is good again-(after the war is over of course). Any of this sound familiar??



When Clinton left Office there was a budget surplus - but all was not well- the economy was starting a bid downturn - following the raising of the interest rates - by: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board--



History always repeats itself- and those that don't remember-especially those in charge of the Government and Business-soon discover that the same things occur again.



Anyway, just some thoughts...



Is Bush responsible for the economy - no I don't think so- I don't think he has any control over it. .

 

[AKDrifter]

Clinton rode on the coattails of Reaganonmics, and wiped his arse all over them before leaving. It still stinks!

 

[Champane Flight]

Too many

Too many factors to say that a President, any president has an effect on the economy. I for one believe that if any effect is felt by a president it is because he is trying to change/boost it. It usually fails.



Watching and experiencing the downturns and upturns of the economy in the last thirty years is very damaging to the Republican administrations, unless you believe in fairy tales/republican propaganda. But, to be honest, they are not to blame, WE are. We, the investers in America have to have confidence in a administration, be able to spend moneys without fear of slumps or reccession, or even depression. Every little plan to boost the economy by a president has failed in the past. Trickle down was a joke, tax breaks don't work. The only thing that does work is good old spending by us. That and balanced budget proposals by goverment, which boosts confidence.



Right now the big money is waiting to see what happens with Iraq. All it sees is spending by the administration, that and proposing of more tax cuts. This to any buisness man, and some of us poor stupid devils, does not make any sense and makes us pull back on any large investments we were considering. Hence, stock prices are down, economy is on hold.



I for one am in the oil industry to. I have seen the ups and downs. I am on hold right now. All indicaters are pointing toward a upward bounce, high price of crude, supply, expansion. Yet our stock prices are down. Go figure. The stock market is fickled right now, every little move made by the world around it effects it. I don't think things will go up until war is over. We will be going into Iraq in the next two weeks, about two weeks after it will go up. The Oracle has spoken! Or maybe after we get a good old crooked, womanizer, back in office? Go figure?

 

[RustyJC]

Re: Too many

Originally posted by Champane Flight

I for one am in the oil industry too. I have seen the ups and downs. I am on hold right now. All indicaters are pointing toward a upward bounce, high price of crude, supply, expansion. Yet our stock prices are down. Go figure

This is what's so frustrating. Oil and gas prices are up. Supplies are tight. In the past, this would trigger new exploration, production and transportation (pipeline) spending. Marginally producing (scraper) wells would be uncapped. Generally speaking, that isn't happening. Oil & gas companies are sitting on their wallets, not purchasing equipment, deferring maintenance and spending only to buy other companies or existing producing properties (which add nothing whatsoever to the overall supply picture. ) Like you said, go figure.



Rusty

 

[rob10858]

first of all i'm not a clinton fan, nor bush [now and then]. i have to say i liked reagan, if only for the simple reason that he seemed like a truly sincere guy, right or wrong. he was smart enough to surround himself with people who could take care of the big issues, while he stayed the great communicator. just remember one thing, please, clinton did not inherit any economic landfall from "reaganomics", the next president george bush did, and then procedded to lose to clinton because the weak economy, even with victory in the persian gulf war. [its the economy stupid]. it seems to me that history is bound to repeat itself... . the surplus is gone, war is on the horizon, and mr bush wants a massive tax cut? it all seems very simple when you look at the numbers, and you dont have to be an economic expert to see the fly in the soup here... :--)