THE BIGGER PICTURE: WATCH THE EUROPEAN UNION

[TDRComm]

Whatever happened to Greta Thunberg, the young Swedish climate change activist that was a media sensation several years ago?

Do you care? (Hey, a Google search is a keystroke away.)

My take: Just another outlandish pawn in the media’s game to influence your thinking.

However, when your attention is directed to the outlandish, you lose focus on what does matter. And, what does matter are the smaller headlines on the inside of the newspaper, web feed or trade magazine. Therefore, I focus your attention to page 4 of Automotive News from November 26, 2022, and the TDR’s Issue 119, page 65. AN is talking about forthcoming “Euro 7” emissions targets and in the TDR we discussed “Tire Pollution.”

Here is data from the November AN article that will paint a bigger picture for you on the future of diesel-powered vehicles (as well as gasoline ICE).

The AN article was titled “Europe’s Last Stab at Regulating Gas Vehicles,” and was written by Peter Sigal. (Follow closely. This is serious stuff. Typically, our legislators follow European Union president.)

“After repeated delays, in November the European Commission released its proposed Euro 7 pollution rules, succeeding Euro 6, which came into force in 2014. The tighter vehicle emission rules create some new realities for automakers across the multination market.

“Euro 7 will most likely be the final internal combustion engine regulations enacted in Europe since the EU is requiring the sale of only zero-emission vehicles after 2035.

“The standards do mark a clear break from Euro 6, notably unifying the standards for diesel and gasoline vehicle on pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), toughening targets for trucks and buses, and setting limits on brake dust and tire particles—which will make up the main source of pollution from road transport in the zero-emission age.

“The regulations are now subject to ratification by the European Parliament and Council. The expectation is that they will go into effect for passenger cars and vans in July 2025, with trucks and buses in 2027.

“Reaction to the proposal was mixed last week, but there are some clear (and not so clear) winners and losers.”

The author, Peter Sigal, then went on to identify “Winners and Losers” with the new emissions legislation.

The winners: Air quality, urban residents, the emissions control industry, and companies such as Michelin and Brembo that are on the forefront with new technologies that would enable them to meet tire and brake particulate matter requirements. (The PM limits for these two “new” pollution categories have not been set yet.)

The losers: European consumers, heavy trucks and buses, and diesel engines. The consumer part is easy to understand, the price of a vehicle will be higher. To understand the other “loser” categories, here is further commentary from Sigal.

Losers: Diesel-powered Trucks and Buses – Nox Reduction 78%

“Heavy trucks and buses: Diesel-powered trucks and buses will need to reduce their NOX output by 78 percent, to 90 milligrams per km, from 400 mg/km. This will lead to compliance costs of $2,800 per vehicle, the European Commission says.

“Diesel engines: Under the proposed Euro 7, diesel cars will have to cut NOx emissions by 25 percent to 60 milligrams per km, from the current level of 80 called for under Euro 6. Any added costs are sure to hasten the decline of diesel offerings, which has been an attractive option for those who regularly travel long distances.

“Higher costs or not, the market for diesel has been declining since the early 2010s. The downward trend accelerated sharply after the 2015 VW emissions-cheating scandal. Many cities are now enacting bans on older diesels, with plans to ban all models in the future. A decade ago, diesels accounted for as much as 70 percent of all vehicle sales in some countries. But in recent months, combined sales of full-electric and plug-in hybrid models have outstripped diesel sales in many markets.”

Summary by the editor-dude:

• Yep, Issue 119 (and prior to that Issue 112) gave you the “heads up” on brake dust and tire wear pollution.
• Yep, the folks at Volkswagen were/are to blame for a majority of the poor eco-image diesel owners and manufacturers have to face.
• Yep, Euro 7 emissions in 2025/2027 and no internal combustion engines in 2035 are coming to Europe.

It doesn’t take a fortuneteller/psychic to see where this is going.

Glad I could help.

RP

 

[bcbender]

I have no words.. other than like CA, where are the magically getting all this electricity from? Most grids can't handle the load if everyone suddenly got another Iphone let alone an coal powered car. I say good luck, I must admit I am just a little saddened as I was hoping to wait out another a hopeful full model change and was eyeing the rumors of 2027 being the year for my next 3500 HO, but sadly politicians and folks with skin in this political shell game are trying to force us all to comply...

 

[GJolicoeur]

I've owned diesel vehicles - Mercedes cars and then Dodge Ram pickups (every gen) for 50 years. They were smoky and stinky in the old days and contributed a lot of soot and air pollution - but they were the workhorses of the industry and allowed us RV owners to tow astonishingly large trailers and loads.
The increasing air pollution standards have brought about a welcome improvement in our contribution to climate change and air quality.
Many people decry this as over reach by our governments - but if we had not started to enact stricter emission controls, we would be hastening the melting in the Arctic and the poor quality of air that some of us may remember from the 70s and 80s.
Some people are certain that we won't be able to overcome the increased electrical load placed on the grid to support battery powered vehicles, but extensive studies have shown that if we electrified the entire fleet of trucks, buses, cars and locomotives, we would increase the worldwide load from 7-10%.
We have decades to achieve this goal as fuel powered vehicles are "grandfathered" and electric vehicles slowly replace them.
We own a Chevy Bolt EV now and enjoy "fuel" costs that are 1/10th the cost of gasoline and diesel not to mention the almost zero upkeep costs. I keep my 3500 Ram dually for towing duties when we need it, but now we have a choice to limit our addition to world wide air pollution whenever we drive with the Bolt. It has a range of up to 300 miles in 3 season weather, and satisfies the lion's share of our driving needs.
It cost us $34,000 CDN.
When I bought my pickup in 2016, it cost $62,000 out the door. A 2022 replacement would be around $105,000. That increase is not due to increased pollution control equipment, but to increased costs of production, labor, parts and our increasing desire to have the best in our vehicles. I don't see a suitable (affordable?) electric replacement on the road yet, although Ford's new EV F150 is sold out for at least the next 2 years.
Even if we cared nothing about the environment, and continued to use fossil fuels at the rate we do now, we will have depleted our easily accessed reserves in about 100 years, maybe less. Has anyone considered what we will do then?
The reality of the demise of fossil fuel powered vehicles is inevitable - whether we believe in climate change or not.
It's smart to embrace the coming of this moment, and work to develop new technologies that will create a whole new era of industrial development that will benefit everyone.

 

[JKaeseberg]

We will have Electric Vehicles but don’t shove it down my throat. People should have a choice! We have too much government now. If people want to drive an electric vehicle (Coal) that’s fine but I should have the same right to drive my diesel truck. The world is full of people telling other people what they can and can’t do. And BTW the climate is going to change whether we’re here or not, just look at the history of our planet. I’ll be happy driving my Diesel Truck.

 

[Bret Bunderson]

Benefiting everyone isn't a reality with a top down forced approach. The cost is passed on untill wages don't allow it or keep up with it. Government turn over happens and labor strikes. A big cycle if you will, much like our ever cycling climate. If we could find the middle ground we all could enjoy the benefits with out the peaks and valleys.
Or just go full Amish, I don't much care to clean up after a horse but government sure keeps me shoveling.

 

[Tuesdak]

Has anyone considered what we will do then?

50 years of guilt running a Diesel? The air in LA , CA may be better since the catalytic converter started being used. Since year 2000 the air in Bakersfield is worse and the entire valley for that matter. No matter the crack-down on emissions, Retro-laws, etc. There be another problem not solved by little return on the costs for another % reduction so Government can “Write a Glowing Report” to justify their leach job ignoring the word “Prosperity”.

Those who retrofitted a Diesel to have a DPF are now being Retro-Lawed by CA before they get any ROI for doing so.

You pay for this at the store.

Have you asked the hard questions about whether the Bolt battery can be recycled?

Have a good laugh at Coal power plants. Then consider where the spent Radioactive Nuke Plant fuel goes. All these “Glowing Government Reports” and we do not have a solution for spent Radioactive fuel without the word “Temporary” or “Short Term”.

Meanwhile Red Communist China lights a Tire Fire to start and operate a tire recycling process. And here we are allowing this as a low bidder while WE drive ourselves out of business over % of a % on CO Emissions.

Sounds like another manufactured crisis to cause harm while allowing 3rd world excuses to make up for it at our expense.

Enjoy the electric vehicle while it lasts. As more jump on them the electric rates constrained by emissions and NIMBY will eliminate the current advantage of owning and using them. CA is the perfect example of someone else deciding IF the rolling blackouts allow you to use electricity including charging the electric vehicle. In 2000 it was Enron defrauding the spot market… Rates went sky high in CA and NEVER CAME BACK DOWN! CA still can’t keep the power on with old negligence to it’s fire starting electric grid. PG&E was on probation and should still be in Prison for continuing to cause harm. Somehow they are out of probation… Just saying your math will be short lived and research on battery not being recycled changes the picture significantly.

 

[bcbender]

Have you asked the hard questions about whether the Bolt battery can be recycled?

Nobody driving a EV wants to answer that question... Furthermore, they ALL claim they are getting "their" power from reenables; Its like when my brother gets a bonus, he spends it six different ways on 10 different things and when you add it up it doesn't make any sense... 10% is 10% not 10 here and 10 there and another 10 here... I am an advocate for EV Hybrids, and pure EVs but there are not ready, not yet and one size does not fit all.... EV batteries could be worse than radioactive waste when we have to deal with what to do with them all, all those heavy metals, toxic Li, etc, as there are going to be so many more.

 

[GJolicoeur]

Strange that people all think Bolt batteries can't be recycled. Bolt batteries are made of a number of modules that are closely monitored by the ECU looking for discrepancies in their voltage and health. If there's a defect, an error is indicated and you bring the car in to the dealer. They can open it up and replace the module that is affected and get you back on your way.
Batteries are guaranteed for 8 years. And at the end are expected to have 85% of their new power. You can keep using it of course, or, if the car is totaled or scrapped, the batteries can be recycled/refurbished for replacements. If not used in a vehicle, they can be used in home battery backup - something that would be useful in place like California where you say power is often uncertain.
At the absolute end of their useful life, they can be broken down into their components, and - like lead-acid batteries, chemicals like lithium phosphate and the aluminum can be recovered and recycled.
In Ontario - we closed all of our coal plants. In Canada, we recycle our spent uranium (including some from the US) into new fuel rods that can be used in breeder reactors to produce years more power. At the very end of their lives, the spent uranium is used in other ways. In Canada there isn't the huge underwater storage for spent fuel rods that the US seems to have. Nuclear power does have its issues, but until we can transition to a fossil fuel free economy, it is a powerful way to produce power at lower costs to health and the environment.

 

[Tuesdak]

the batteries can be recycled

The Lead Acid Batteries in standard automotive use is a known known to be recycled. Almost all Lead Acid batteries are diverted from the landfill.

It's said to be five time more expensive to recycle a Li battery than it is to simply buy virgin lithium from brine-mining.

So "Can" isn't the entire story. It's not profitable so it won't be. Unless via a Tax/subsidy arrangement it's made profitable.

We don't even recycle more than 15% of the spent Li batteries now from computers, disposable phones (that don't have easy to replace batteries), etc.

Nuclear power does have its issues, but until we can transition to a fossil fuel free economy, it is a powerful way to produce power at lower costs to health and the environment.

You appear to have missed out on some of the Biggest EPA Superfund sites in the USA. NIMBY applies in a weird way as Grand Junction Colorado used Mill Tailings as fill dirt under houses and literally backyards. Radon Gas and other problems...

https://coloradonewsline.com/2021/06/07/uranium-mill-tailings-legacy-continues/

3 Mile Island was finally cleaned up from it's 1970's meltdown and Chernobyl, still an exclusion zone, was finally given a new very expensive roof structure The World had to pay for. Some reactors in Japan ... Not exactly bragging rights for total containment. When we are done paying for cleanup, decommissioning fees, etc. Nuke power is some of the most expensive power around. It's waste will be radioactive for generations. Not just the fuel: Every single radioactive pipe, brick, and disposable glove used is radioactive waste. The radioactive people buried in lead caskets from when things went very wrong...

Did you work in any Uranium mines? Did you live in places like Grand Junction Colorado with positive Radon test results from your home? Do you get to watch your Dr's eyes open wide when you say of conditions: "I grew up on an EPA Superfund site."?

There is a reason we haven't built a new nuke plant in like forever ... Japan has no other resources so despite the populations desire to not use them from the last meltdowns they had: they really have no other choice.

 

[bcbender]

I have to agree...Sounds just like the GM sales brochure... The hook here is "everything is recyclable" but rarely are they.. Most plastics, even with the recycle emblem prominently molded in are sent strait to the landfill. The story tellers like to say how the machine is 99% recyclable, and second life, etc.. but the reality is much different so it has and is typically dismissed or ignored.

Id like to see the dealer remove and open up the pack to replace one bad module.. more likely they'll just kick the can down the road with a host of reasons why its not a problem

 

[GJolicoeur]

The Lead Acid Batteries in standard automotive use is a known known to be recycled. Almost all Lead Acid batteries are diverted from the landfill.

It's said to be five time more expensive to recycle a Li battery than it is to simply buy virgin lithium from brine-mining.

So "Can" isn't the entire story. It's not profitable so it won't be. Unless via a Tax/subsidy arrangement it's made profitable.

We don't even recycle more than 15% of the spent Li batteries now from computers, disposable phones (that don't have easy to replace batteries), etc.



You appear to have missed out on some of the Biggest EPA Superfund sites in the USA. NIMBY applies in a weird way as Grand Junction Colorado used Mill Tailings as fill dirt under houses and literally backyards. Radon Gas and other problems...

https://coloradonewsline.com/2021/06/07/uranium-mill-tailings-legacy-continues/

3 Mile Island was finally cleaned up from it's 1970's meltdown and Chernobyl, still an exclusion zone, was finally given a new very expensive roof structure The World had to pay for. Some reactors in Japan ... Not exactly bragging rights for total containment. When we are done paying for cleanup, decommissioning fees, etc. Nuke power is some of the most expensive power around. It's waste will be radioactive for generations. Not just the fuel: Every single radioactive pipe, brick, and disposable glove used is radioactive waste. The radioactive people buried in lead caskets from when things went very wrong...

Did you work in any Uranium mines? Did you live in places like Grand Junction Colorado with positive Radon test results from your home? Do you get to watch your Dr's eyes open wide when you say of conditions: "I grew up on an EPA Superfund site."?

There is a reason we haven't built a new nuke plant in like forever ... Japan has no other resources so despite the populations desire to not use them from the last meltdowns they had: they really have no other choice.

You make good points that I can't deny. Going forward there will be hard choices to make sooner or later.
By the way, not all radon comes from nuclear power plants. We have radon in our home coming up from the ground that needs to be remediated. Natural uranium is almost everywhere here.
There's also the endless contamination from oil spills everywhere in the world. While nuclear is dangerous, oil extraction has caused a lot of damage over the centuries. Just take a look at the Alberta Oil Sands, Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon, over 700 Oil well fires in Kuwait that took months put out after the war, among dozens of large spills. Not to mention the air pollution and heavy metals coming from coal and oil fired generating stations.
Energy production required to maintain our way of life comes with big challenges no matter what methods we ultimately end up using.

 

[Tuesdak]

Going forward there will be hard choices to make sooner or later.

The lifetime of damage from oil spills is a rounding error for the radioactive accident lifetime. At the end of the day our average lifespans have more than doubled since the technology of civilization has arrived.

It's about time the "Hard Choices" involve the word "Prosperity" rather than "Subsidy" and "Environmental Crises Of The Day". Further we need to require our trading partners to meet the same strict environmental laws we have or via adding a stiff tariff. Plastic Dog Poo we import shouldn't get a free pass anymore to be able to underbid by BYPASSING our laws. This includes the EU's similar actions.

The next crisis has arrived as the savior for R12, R134A, is now undergoing the Ban Hammer. Time to replace a bunch of equipment, including service equipment, never mind the cost esp. to The Environment to replace equipment before it's used up. As usual the cost to you, us, will be extreme with sky high refrigerant cost OR "do without" replace equipment costs. Apparently it's always been OK to use flammable refrigerant with a warning label because that's what is on the market now.

We can't even manufacture something as simple as a light bulb here anymore with the incandescent light bulb ban going into effect later this year. (EU and some other countries share this Lemmings Going Over a Cliff Action.) Choose one: Mercury filled toxic waste fluorescent or LED's. Want to look up what it takes to manufacture LED's and their electronics? Disappointing when they don't last, poor and/or blinding quality of light, health effects from the strobe effect CHEAP designs give you... We have the technology to make LED's flicker and strobe free, but by law the ~15W LED that replaces 100W needs to use 2W less power to do so thus strobe effect flickering poor quality light... The old bulbs, that every new design is compared too and falls short of, cost 99 cents for a four pack and were Made In The USA. Best we got is LED's assembled with foreign components today. Clearly "Hard Choices" are being made by unqualified people for reasons other than advertised.

Do you think any lawmaker has any understanding of the following?
https://www.flickersense.org/background/led-lights

Some info with costs:
https://www.waveformlighting.com/flicker-free-led-lighting

Link above, for reference only, gives you an idea of what a decent quality LED should cost - $25 PER BULB. Not this cheap Garbage on the market that will be sending people to the Dr with bad headaches, seizures... with loss of work/productivity. Sadly we used to have these on the market years ago till they went CHEAP esp. for even more energy savings. Why?! 15W is only 15% of the 100W it replaced, but, ignorantly pushed for even more power savings despite the trade offs. The market can't decide here as it's required by law esp. in California.

Meanwhile savings to "us" are erased as the power company simply increases the monthly connection charge.