It does happen...
I think I would go with the thermostat first. It is the simplest, cheapest possible cause. The go bad more often than the water pumps. I think you are doing things in the right order. You may want to get the 180* thermostat for the Cummins. Is your old thermostat a 180* or 190*? I am planning on changing my coolant this summer and will change the thermostat when I do. I don't know which one I have now, but I will go back with a 180*. I am thinking I might change the water pump at the same time, but money is tight. The truck currently has 141,000 miles on it. In my old '92 which now has 230,000+ miles, the water pump started seeping from the weep hole at 180,000 miles. New pump, problem solved.
I have seen one water pump go bad and cause overheating without leaking. It was on a 1975 John Deere tractor and happened two years ago. Just to give you an ideal of how much this tractor has been used, the empeller blades were worn slick off the pump! I could not believe it! Generally, John Deere pumps will leak and the front bearing will go out long before the empeller shows any wear. New pump installed and no more overheating problems. Thermostat was fine.