"The politicians do not regulate big oil? Do you know the profit margins of
big OIL? Chevron, and Unocal etc. They are making money hand over fist, yet
the consumer is getting screwed. "
Profits are indeed growing at a breakneck pace in the energy sector, because
the price of the raw material that these companies find and extract is
rising. The profits of mining companies have also been growing at a
breakneck pace, because the price of copper and just about every other metal
has soared the past several years. Is that Bush's fault too? Of course not.
It is simply the case that demand for most industrial commodities, from
natural gas to steel, has been increasing rapidly; though the American media
remain fairly gloomy about the economy, the fact is that GDP growth in the
U. S. during the past three years has exceeded that seen throughout most of
the 1990s (you know, when the economy was "good"), China and other emerging
markets are coming on strong now that the hangover from the Asian currency
crisis of the late '90s is finally over, and even Japan (the world's second
largest economy, though we sometimes forget that) appears to be emerging
from a dozen years of economic stagnation. In short, demand is up
everywhere, and anyone who wants to give Bush *credit* for this is, in my
mind, giving the guy much more *credit* than he deserves.
Supply is also a lot tighter than it should be, but this isn't the result of
some big conspiracy between energy companies and the Bushies. Oil prices
fell throughout the 1990s, and - understandably - energy companies who got
burned by expanding too rapidly in the '80s only to see the price of their
product fall for the next ten years decided to cut back on exploration
budgets and new projects - which goes to the point of the WSJ article cited
by Heavyweight; the old projects are producing less and less, and there
weren't enough new projects initiated in the 1990s to make up for it. (Who
could have predicted how fast the economy would be growing today following
the bear market of 2000-02, a global recession in 2001, and, of course, the
gloom and doom predictions of economists after 9/11? If Heavyweight did,
then he should be running one of these oil companies! But I suspect that
back then he was as worried about the economy as everyone else and probably
would not have recommended to Exxon that they drastically expand their
production budgets - "Yeah, let's increase jet fuel production capacity
after 9/11... that makes sense. " Not. )
So we have the double whammy of surging global demand and the risk premium
of heightened tensions in the Mid East, yet energy producers simply don't
have the capacity that they would like to have. Are you telling me that
Exxon wouldn't love to produce more oil right now to cash in on high prices,
even if the prices are pushed a bit lower by the increased supply? Would you
rather sell two fish for $6 or five fish for $5? Trust me, they want to
bring more oil to market. Badly. In fact, though I'm sure they are
enjoying the short-term gains, oil prices at these levels make them very
nervous; what keeps the CEOs of these companies up at night is the
possibility that oil prices will reach a "tipping" point for the global
economy, causing a recession, which will suppress demand lead to a crash in
the oil market when hedge funds and other speculators fall over themselves
to close out massive leveraged long positions.
What is worse right now, gas prices or home prices? I know I can still
afford to fill up my 4. 3L V8, but I sure as hell can't afford a house in the
Bay Area! Is that Bush's fault? Is he in the "pocket" of "Big Housing"? What
a load of crap. When housing prices out here fell in the 1980s (and again
in the mid-'90s), homebuilders found themselves stuck with all kinds of
unsold inventory and half-finished projects, and after taking a financial
beating, they swore that they would never again embrace speculative
development. That memory is still fresh in minds of many homebuilding
executives, who seem reluctant to build too much today for fear of something
similar happening (sounds like what oil CEOs are worried about... . ). So
should we blame homebuilders for high housing costs? Should we blame Bush
and Cheney? Silly. With a handful of high-profile exceptions, the vast
majority of the 20,000 or so publicly traded companies tend to behave
rationally, and when prices are falling over several years, they don't
aggravate the problem by increasing capacity. Their job isn't to subsidize
YOU. Their job is to make sure that they run their organizations for the
maximum benefit of the owners, the shareholders. If you don't like that
concept and think the politicians should do more about it, then move to
France or Germany and see how easy it is to fill up your Diesel truck at
prices that are two or three times higher than they are here due to
government bureaucracies *actually* lining their own pockets with massive
fuel taxes. Oh, and you'll probably be unemployed in Germany or France,
given the double-digit unemployment rates in those countries (compared to
only 5. 0% here), which I imagine will make filling up your truck that much
more difficult. But be my guest. I'm sure things are much better in
countries that Bush doesn't run, where oil companies like BP and Total
aren't in Bush's back pocket. If enough people leave, maybe I'll be able to
afford a house. : )
From my good friend Ian, since I'm being so "outgunned"
