Diesel engine doubling on price

[CMast]

I have been hearing rumors that all diesel engines are going to cost double what they sell for now. Is this true or just a rumor? The source told me that the government was behind this.

 

[cclark746]

I have been hearing rumors that all diesel engines are going to cost double what they sell for now. Is this true or just a rumor? The source told me that the government was behind this.

who can afford them now if the price doubles then everyone is going to have to buy an old 12valver

 

[AHarris]

Facts

The new 6. 7 is about $1,300 more ($995 of that is for the fancy Diesel Particulate Filter and is listed as a separate charge... the motor itself is about $300 more). The new 68RFE is about $300 more than the 48RE it replaces. Comes to around $1,600-$1,700 more for the CTD/auto package and only $1,300 more if you get the new 6. 7 with the G56 6-speed manual transmission.



The new Cummins 6. 7L is still way cheaper than the $10K rice cooking "Power Package" on the GM Durapads. :-laf

 

[JFaughn]

I think that the price of everything has more than doubled some time ago , and I'm not that old [ 53 ] , when they start putting so many more parts in the origanal eng. [ 12v -24v ] then all the electrionics , ect. , then you add in more of the world moving towards industrialization using the same reasources , the raw matierals go up , then you add coruption being spread among more people [ higher costs ] , then we bring in the government , they are not behind anything , they are sheep that have aloud themselves to be bought off by the corparations , is the ture charge we can blame them for .

Rant rant .

 

[Nate]

That's why I'm going to keep my truck until the wheels fall off. And then I'll buy new wheels

 

[jakprince]

Well it might drive the trade in value up.

 

[rbattelle]

I have been hearing rumors that all diesel engines are going to cost double what they sell for now. Is this true or just a rumor? The source told me that the government was behind this.

This conspiratorial air is unfounded, I think. Why would the government want the price of a diesel to double?



I don't think "double" is the correct multiple, but the price of all engines built to comply with Tier III Stage 2 emissions regulations for 2007 will absolutely be higher than pre-2007 engines. Since the EPA is forcing the cleanup of diesel engine exhaust, I suppose the government is basically responsible. Just don't think it's because the government is trying to kill diesels.



However, if we can learn anything from gasoline engines, the price of the additional emissions equipment will decline as the technology in them increases.



I would argue, however, that even without EPA imposition of emissions cleanup the cost of diesel engines would be driven up over time anyway. Take camless engines, for example. Many people feel camless designs will be the next big thing in engines - and the technology won't be cheap (at least at first). The advantages of a camless design are such that their implementation (and corresponding price increase) is unavoidable.



Does any of that make sense? I think I was just rambling.



Ryan

 

[DJennings]

Sense perfect makes it...

 

[jelag]

We have an EPA that wouldn't allow the standards for diesel emissions in Europe to be the same here... their standards are much broader, and so the diesel engines have been put into everything... A few years ago CAT decided that it wouldn't meet the last set of standards here in the US and has been paying the EPA a fine on each engine produced instead of meeting the standards... They have paid millions... but their idea was why make engines that perform badly and cost more when its simpler to just pay the fine. . During that time they have decided to go for the 2007 standards...



So for the engine people to meet the 2007 standards they have had to convince the oil companies to make the ULSD so that they have a way around the emissions... and the trap that they are using is the way around the emissions... . but LSD wouldn't do. . it was like lead to a cataltic converter... . lead was removed from gas so that the CAT would work... and sulfur was removed from diesel so that the trap would work...



Remember also that now the new standards would apply down the road to not only on road trucks but to off road machinery as well... . so for the last 18 months the engine builders have been building engines like crazy... as its the engine build date not the vehicle mfg. date for large trucks... most of the truck and equipment builders are swamped as they continue to build with the old engines...



They say that after all the engines are gone. . the cost of a new class 8 truck with trap and extra stuff plus the warranty that has to be put on the engine for emissions will add 10,000 to 12,000 to the cost of an over the road truck. . add this to the higher cost of ULSD and the lower mileage these trucks are expected to get and you have a lot higher operating cost over the first 1 million miles...



With all this in mind we are lucky that cummins can spread all the costs over millions of engines for our trucks instead of the low numbers of class 8 trucks... they have a huge advantage over the other engine builders...



And its been said that after the old engines are gone there is a good change that there will be a reduction of either engine builders or chassis builders of class 8 trucks in the US from the slow down... I've read that they have enough engines stockpiled to get most of the way into the 1st quarter of this year...



So I'm personally waiting for a 5500 dodge and really interested to see if the articles I've read are true and one of the truck builders or engine builders will go down...



Just my personal thoughts... . Hope this helps. .

 

[rbattelle]

They say that after all the engines are gone. . the cost of a new class 8 truck with trap and extra stuff plus the warranty that has to be put on the engine for emissions will add 10,000 to 12,000 to the cost of an over the road truck. . add this to the higher cost of ULSD and the lower mileage these trucks are expected to get and you have a lot higher operating cost over the first 1 million miles...

What if this results in the gradual decline of trucking in favor of trains!?



No offense to truckers, but trains are pretty awesome. The more expensive trucking becomes, the more attractive railroads become. Oo. Perhaps GE is foreseeing this move with their recent advertising blitz regarding the new Evolution Series locomotives.



US society moves away from Class 8 trucks and into an infrastructure that uses trains to haul goods to local depots where class 5-7 trucks offload and transport to stores.



Seems a lot more efficient. Like transoceanic shipping: there's a very good reason they don't use millions of rowboats to ship goods across the ocean!



Ryan

 

[CMast]

theres a local radio station that has an advertisement for a chevy dealership it says something like due to coming goverment regulations all diesel trucks will double there price on the engine to meet the new epa requirements maybe there trying to sell the rest of ther trucks i dont know. i know a guy that works at the dealership and he says its true

 

[fozzy]

Just picked up my new 07 Wussamax work truck with the 15 ppm engine in it. The diesel power package with the 6 speed auto is $7,555. 00 on the window sticker.

 

[MRFost]

It'll never happen, because the WORLD is doing business "JIT". That's Just In Time, folks, and it's the most efficient way of making and selling a product. Unless the trains can magically start making their trips a whole bunch faster, trucks are here to stay. They may only haul product to us *from* the ports. The rail system is not in a condition to handle faster traffic. Products can take weeks to travel from one border to another vs. days via truck. My opinion. The highways will always be clogged with trucks.

 

[jelag]

Ryan



We ship from coast to coast... we are not time sensitive... a trailer or container on the rail costs about 2200 and if we send that same container or trailer by truck its about 3800 plus fuel surcharges... however the railroad is not time sensitive and often will loose a container or let it run out of diesel... remember that containers that have chilled or frozen food must have a refer or freezer on it and they run on diesel... on a ship. . that container runs on electricity in the hold of the ship.....



Anyway back to my story... I'd guess that 65-75 % of all cross country freight already runs by train... . with only the 25-35% of time sensitive stuff running by truck... but the big stuff is still being used off road in logging, gravel hauling etc... . The railroads have put a huge dent in my business... Class 8 Clutches and Brakes...



The problem with rail is that if I get a container from the east coast... it has to go to Seattle, and gets put on a truck and comes back to Spokane, 400 miles backwards... because most small towns can't off load containers fast enough or have the huge equipment to do this... If and when the railroads get their act together... our industry will suffer another blow...



BTW - I also get containers from off shore... often they will off load in Long Beach (LA) as they can turn the ship around faster than dropping containers in LA, SF, and Seattle... when they run a ship direct to Seattle its better... but in either example my vendor is paying the freight to my door so I don't care how it comes... but his cost is the same no matter where its off loaded... so the shipping companies have that land freight cost built into the sea costs...



Jim

 

[Tomeygun]

The new 6. 7 is about $1,300 more ($995 of that is for the fancy Diesel Particulate Filter and is listed as a separate charge... the motor itself is about $300 more). The new 68RFE is about $300 more than the 48RE it replaces. Comes to around $1,600-$1,700 more for the CTD/auto package and only $1,300 more if you get the new 6. 7 with the G56 6-speed manual transmission.



The new Cummins 6. 7L is still way cheaper than the $10K rice cooking "Power Package" on the GM Durapads. :-laf

Just checked - $6100 + 995



- thank the lord I have my 03

 

[Vaughn MacKenzie]

The problem with the railroads is after deregulation in the '80s tens of thousands of miles of track was ripped up. Now that rail traffic has increased dramatically the infrastructure is at and beyond capacity in many areas. And anytime a railroad wants to build new trackage everyone gets all up in arms because they don't want it in their neighborhood, or the railroad has to run through existing or developed urban areas making it extremely expensive to establish a new right of way. That happened when the UP ran a new line in Las Vegas. . . mega expensive.



In some ways railroads operate their systems the same old way they have for over a century, and if they worked to overcome some of their inefficient tendencies it would help improve transit speed and performance. I have always thought traffic could be controlled to where trains could travel at more consistent speeds instead of frequently going from full speed to a complete stop a number of times per trip.



Trucking has done well because for the most part they have our vast freeway and roadway system to travel on for basically free, paid by tax dollars, whereas most railroad infrastructure is built with a large portion of it funded by the railroad company itself.



Vaughn

 

[dieselcruiserhead]

bottom line is there are all sorts of new emissions restrictiopns on diesels, that is why they cost more. it sort of sucks, but I know my emissions and their effects on the public pretty well, honestly it embarrassing that it took this long. Good ol USA, as someone said earlier, one the biggest reasons we don't have diesels like they do in Europe, over 25% of the cars sold there...

 

[BBowers]

here is the BIG reason why prices are going up...

It'll never happen, because the WORLD is doing business "JIT". That's Just In Time, folks, and it's the most efficient way of making and selling a product. Unless the trains can magically start making their trips a whole bunch faster, trucks are here to stay. They may only haul product to us *from* the ports. The rail system is not in a condition to handle faster traffic. Products can take weeks to travel from one border to another vs. days via truck. My opinion. The highways will always be clogged with trucks.

THe big reason behind the price increases on diesel trucks have been well stated in this thread. Also, as for the european emissions standards, they allow one set of emissions standards for gas, one for diesel. THis is why we have a big problem here in America. We have ONE set of emissions standards (for on-highway) which includes one standard for NOX emissions. It's stupid, short sighted, and wasteful, and results in using "multiple injection events one or more of which are used to COOL THE COMBUSTION CHAMBER... " How bout using as little fuel as possible to move something down the road? THere's a revolutionary idea! Oh well, we can't all have 12 valves... As for rail, I have a brother in law who works for Union PAcific. He told me recently that NO MORE TRAINS WILL FIT ON EXISTING RAILS: THE RAILROAD INDUSTRY IS AT MAX CAPACITY!!! So, as another guy said in this thread, get used to seeing class 8 trucks. I work in the inland barge industry and the average towboat is about 25-30 years old. New ones are around 10 million apiece and none of the corporate thieves want to turn loose of the cash to build a single new boat in the larger companies. The big horsepower towboats in the 5,000 HP class and up are going to be years down the road to see replacements built and they are outdated rattle traps as it is! SO, again, watch for more class 8 trucks. oh, and another thing, the price on the new diesels is really being forced by governtment/big corporations, because small operators can't afford the old trucks either, so only BIG companies will end up being able to survive with their huge buying power. THe emissions regulations are forcing the diesel engine makers to scramble and do costly R&D to develop impossibly clean engines that have frequent electronics failures which sell more parts. I dread the cost of a $1200 set of injectors for my '03. So, the sticker shock is reflecting less the cost of hardware and more the cost of intensive R&D to make an engine so clean it will probably stop working. After all, with the friggin think switched off, it's a zero emissions vehicle right? We need to switch off those congressional salaries since you shouldn't get paid for not doing your job!

 

[RonA]

What if this results in the gradual decline of trucking in favor of trains!?



No offense to truckers, but trains are pretty awesome. The more expensive trucking becomes, the more attractive railroads become. Oo. Perhaps GE is foreseeing this move with their recent advertising blitz regarding the new Evolution Series locomotives.



US society moves away from Class 8 trucks and into an infrastructure that uses trains to haul goods to local depots where class 5-7 trucks offload and transport to stores.



Seems a lot more efficient. Like transoceanic shipping: there's a very good reason they don't use millions of rowboats to ship goods across the ocean!



Ryan

I have been told that the railroads have been subsidized by the federal government from the beginning. Is this true? I have also heard that all of their tracks are put on easements given to them by the government. Just curious if any of this is true.

 

[rbattelle]

Vaughan's point about deregulation peaked my interest. Why would deregulating an industry cause it to decline? Here's an eyefull about it! And here's an interesting tidbit from that 1984 article:

However, the most significant factor in the financial decline of the railroad is economic regulation. Rate regulation prevented the managers of railroads from responding to changing conditions in the transportation market. It also imposed costs on railroads by preventing timely abandonment of uneconomical branch lines. Although the ICC has permitted railroads to reduce excess capacity, the bureaucratic nature of the decision making has caused needless expense to the railroads. One study concluded that elimination of only the most uneconomical branch lines would have resulted in a one-time saving of about $3 billion in 1977. [4]



Regulation of per diem rates, demurrage charges, and rate divisions led to other excessive costs. One study estimated that these costs were between $1. 5 billion and $1. 7 billion. [5] Regulation also prevented railroads from eliminating costly distortions in the rate structure designed to protect small shippers, certain ports, and producing areas. [6] Any change proposed resulted in numerous protests from the affected carriers, shippers, and regional interests. The resulting slow, cumbersome rate review process severely diminished rail profitability.

In other words, years of regulation stifled the industry and deregulation came too late. Couple that with rigorous promotion of other transportation modes by the government (such as the road system), and you end up killing railroads.



Rail sure has problems! Probably the most significant right now for freight are those dealing with reliability. But imagine if they solved the reliability issues, and you could count on interstate rail shipping just like interstate truck and aircraft? A new golden age in rail service!



Try a Google search on "railroad deregulation"... some interesting reading.



Ryan