Finding a green core under the Republican red
I found this article interesting
By Mark Paul -- Bee Deputy Editorial Page Editor
Sacramento Bee
Sunday, April 13, 2003
In geographic terms, it's 35 miles from Folsom to Davis. But ask
anyone to estimate the political distance between those two towns, and chances are good that the answer will come back measured in light years.
We all know the stereotypes. Davis is supposed to be the Sacramento region's Berkeley East, home to tree-hugging, Volvo-driving, peace-marching, Democratic-voting, tofu-chomping elitists hostile to growth and economic development.
And Folsom, like the other new communities growing up around the region -- Sprinkler Cities, as writer David Brooks has cleverly
dubbed them -- is supposed to be the polar opposite. It's the home to what Brooks calls Patio Man and Sprawl People: SUV-driving, churchgoing, Republican-voting, golf-playing security seekers hostile to restraints on free enterprise and property.
These are comic book capsules, of course, but they say something real about our politics.
Think for a moment about that striking map from the 2000 presidential election, the one that portrayed the county-by-county vote for Al Gore and George Bush. It showed the expansive red Bush heartland, spotted with blue lakes of cities that voted for Gore and washed on both coasts by a blue Democratic sea.
If you could zoom down in that map from the state and county level to look at the individual pixels, precinct by precinct, you'd find that the beach where blue meets red runs somewhere through the middle of this region, along about Watt Avenue. There the long fiord of Democratic blue that flows up I-80 out of the Bay Area meets the red
rock of the GOP continent.
In its voting habits, the city of Davis belongs to the coast; Folsom
belongs to the suburban crescent of Sprinkler Cities on the east side of the region that now vote more reliably conservative than Orange County, long the bellwether of California Republicanism.
But what the stereotypes tell about partisan leanings obscures a
hidden nugget of opinion gold: When it comes to the concerns central to this region's growth future, there's not as much distance between Berkeley East and Sprinkler City as the stereotypes suggest.
Recent polls conducted by political consultants for cities and other
clients strikingly show that anxieties about the pace and impacts of urban growth are beginning to swell not just in environmental hotbeds but in Sprinkler Cities, too. The numbers suggest a widespread public hunger to get local planning right before it's too late.
Nobody who lives by the stereotypes will be surprised to learn that a poll last year in Davis found 83 percent of voters there listed growth as that community's biggest or second-biggest problem.
But it was an eye-opener when a poll in Folsom, commissioned by the
city and conducted by J. Moore Methods, found that 89 percent
consider managing growth and development as a top city priority and two-thirds are dissatisfied with the way the city is handling it.
In Davis, 80 percent of voters told pollsters they were concerned to save open space; in Folsom, the number was 82 percent, with slightly more than half of voters dissatisfied with the way the city was handling the issue. Only a third said they supported expanding Folsom by 3,600 acres south of Highway 50 into the blue oak woodlands. (By contrast, three quarters of them supported raising Folsom Dam by 10 feet. )
The story is much the same in another growing city, Elk Grove. A
recent assessment poll done for that city found 85 percent of voters identified managing growth and development as a top priority, right up there with police protection and keeping taxes affordable. Almost as many cited protecting the environment and preserving farmland and open space.
But slightly more than half reported they were dissatisfied with the way the city was handling those issues. About the same percentage oppose having Elk Grove grow to a population of 150,000 over the next 20 years, as the city's general plan envisages. Political consultants who are closely watching the shifting attitudes say that Elk Grove is tracking only about two or threeyears behind Folsom in its movement toward developing a slow-growth politics.
Finding a green core under the Republican red shouldn't be entirelyshocking. For years in El Dorado Hills, that conservative bastion, it's been political death in local politics to be associated too closely with growth and development. In the last election, developers like Angelo Tsakopoulos laundered their contributions to candidates through the deputy sheriffs to avoid tainting their favorites in the public's eye.
But the pace of the attitude shifts across the region is so swift thatleaders are scrambling to catch up.
Business and political officials looking to get voter support to
extend the transportation sales tax in Sacramento County, which must be renewed by 2008, have figured out they can't expect to win if road improvements are seen as inducing unwanted growth and lost open space. Political consultants are figuring out that quality-of-life issues will have big appeal in future local elections in suburban cities.
If changing attitudes are any guide, the next generation of
successful candidates in Sprinkler Cities won't come out of the old
builder/anti-environmental mold of John Doolittle. They'll harken
back to an earlier style, the Republicanism of Theodore Roosevelt,
the one who put the "conserve" in conservatism. Because,
increasingly, that's where the votes will be.